Forecasted Questions
Will Iran launch missiles or conduct an airstrike against U.S. forces in the next six months?
Forecast Count:
11 Forecasts
11 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 30, 2024 10:00PM UTC
(6 days ago)
Oct 30, 2024 10:00PM UTC
(6 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 15% | Oct 30, 2024 to Apr 30, 2025 | Nov 30, 2024 | 4% | +11% | +1% |
| No | 85% | Oct 30, 2024 to Apr 30, 2025 | Nov 30, 2024 | 96% | -11% | -1% |
Will Israel and Saudi Arabia publicly acknowledge that they are resuming the normalization process in the next six months?
Forecast Count:
11 Forecasts
11 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 30, 2024 10:01PM UTC
(6 days ago)
Oct 30, 2024 10:01PM UTC
(6 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0% | Oct 30, 2024 to Apr 30, 2025 | Nov 30, 2024 | 1% | -1% | +0% |
| No | 100% | Oct 30, 2024 to Apr 30, 2025 | Nov 30, 2024 | 99% | +1% | +0% |
Will Wagner Group or Africa Corps deploy to Togo or an additional African country before 1 January 2026?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 30, 2024 10:01PM UTC
(6 days ago)
Oct 30, 2024 10:01PM UTC
(6 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Togo | 15% | 25% | -10% | -1% |
| Any other African country with no previous Wagner or Africa Corps operations | 25% | 35% | -10% | -2% |