168th
Accuracy Rank

gcahlik

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Forecasted Questions

Will Iran launch missiles or conduct an airstrike against U.S. forces in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
11 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 30, 2024 10:00PM UTC
(22 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Forecast Window Forecast Expiration Current Consensus
Yes 15% Oct 30, 2024 to Apr 30, 2025 Nov 30, 2024 1%
No 85% Oct 30, 2024 to Apr 30, 2025 Nov 30, 2024 99%

Will Israel and Saudi Arabia publicly acknowledge that they are resuming the normalization process in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
11 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 30, 2024 10:01PM UTC
(22 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Forecast Window Forecast Expiration Current Consensus
Yes 0% Oct 30, 2024 to Apr 30, 2025 Nov 30, 2024 1%
No 100% Oct 30, 2024 to Apr 30, 2025 Nov 30, 2024 99%

Will Wagner Group or Africa Corps deploy to Togo or an additional African country before 1 January 2026?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 30, 2024 10:01PM UTC
(22 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Togo 15% 24%
Any other African country with no previous Wagner or Africa Corps operations 25% 39%
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