168th
Accuracy Rank

gcahlik

About:

Former Investigative Analyst for a Federal agency, now working as a trade compliance specialist for a nonprofit research and development institute.

Johns Hopkins University, School of Advanced International Studies graduate, MA International Relations, Russian and Eurasian studies concentration. University of Texas at San Antonio graduate, BA Economics, Political Science, minor in Russian

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Forecasted Questions
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Will Russia initiate a major ground offensive to attack the following Ukrainian cities before 31 December 2024?

Forecast Count:
 9 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Oct 28, 2024 01:37AM UTC
(25 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Kharkiv 3% 3%
Kyiv 0% 1%
Odesa 0% 2%

Will another Chinese military base in an African country (excluding Djibouti) be under construction or established by 1 January 2027?

Forecast Count:
 2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Oct 28, 2024 01:37AM UTC
(25 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 60% 35%
No 40% 65%

Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 July 2025?

Forecast Count:
 4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jul 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Oct 28, 2024 01:38AM UTC
(25 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 5% 1%
No 95% 99%

Will Russia invade Estonia, Latvia, and/or Lithuania before 1 April 2027?

Forecast Count:
 7 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Oct 28, 2024 01:38AM UTC
(25 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Estonia 0% 2%
Latvia 0% 1%
Lithuania 0% 2%

Will Nicolás Maduro be president of Venezuela on 11 January 2025?

Forecast Count:
 6 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 11, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Oct 28, 2024 01:38AM UTC
(25 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 95% 97%
No 5% 3%

Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
 3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Oct 28, 2024 01:38AM UTC
(25 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Forecast Window Forecast Expiration Current Consensus
Yes 0% Oct 28, 2024 to Apr 28, 2025 Nov 28, 2024 0%
No 100% Oct 28, 2024 to Apr 28, 2025 Nov 28, 2024 100%

Will Huawei sell or announce plans to sell Open RAN equipment before 1 January 2027?

Forecast Count:
 3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Oct 30, 2024 09:49PM UTC
(22 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 35% 21%
No 65% 79%

Will a collaboration between Huawei and the O-RAN Alliance be announced before 1 October 2025?

Forecast Count:
 3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Oct 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(10 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Oct 30, 2024 09:49PM UTC
(22 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 5% 5%
No 95% 95%

Will the Lebanese parliament elect a president in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
 7 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Oct 30, 2024 09:49PM UTC
(22 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Forecast Window Forecast Expiration Current Consensus
Yes 5% Oct 30, 2024 to Apr 30, 2025 Jan 30, 2025 4%
No 95% Oct 30, 2024 to Apr 30, 2025 Jan 30, 2025 96%

Will Russia deliver the below weapons systems to Iran before 1 February 2025?

Forecast Count:
 11 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Feb 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Oct 30, 2024 09:49PM UTC
(22 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
S-400 or S-500 missile system 3% 9%
Su-35 fighter jets 0% 6%
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