Forecasted Questions
On 31 May 2025, will Nvidia be the world’s most valuable company by market cap?
Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
May 03, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)
May 03, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 23, 2024 06:06PM UTC
(7 days ago)
Sep 23, 2024 06:06PM UTC
(7 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 10% | 11% | -1% | +0% |
| No | 90% | 89% | +1% | +0% |
Will Russia initiate a major ground offensive to attack the following Ukrainian cities before 31 December 2024?
Forecast Count:
8 Forecasts
8 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 23, 2024 06:09PM UTC
(7 days ago)
Sep 23, 2024 06:09PM UTC
(7 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kharkiv | 3% | 4% | -1% | +0% |
| Kyiv | 0% | 1% | -1% | +0% |
| Odesa | 0% | 1% | -1% | +0% |
Will another Chinese military base in an African country (excluding Djibouti) be under construction or established by 1 January 2027?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 23, 2024 06:13PM UTC
(7 days ago)
Sep 23, 2024 06:13PM UTC
(7 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 60% | 41% | +19% | -3% |
| No | 40% | 59% | -19% | +3% |
What percentage of global semiconductor revenue will come from the Americas region in 2024?
Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 27, 2024 12:17AM UTC
(4 days ago)
Sep 27, 2024 12:17AM UTC
(4 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Less than 24% | 0% | 0% | +0% | +0% |
| More than or equal to 24% but less than 26% | 0% | 0% | +0% | +0% |
| More than or equal to 26% but less than 28% | 20% | 22% | -2% | -7% |
| More than or equal to 28% | 80% | 77% | +3% | +7% |
Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 July 2025?
Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(9 months from now)
Jul 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(9 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 27, 2024 12:17AM UTC
(4 days ago)
Sep 27, 2024 12:17AM UTC
(4 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 5% | 1% | +4% | +0% |
| No | 95% | 99% | -4% | +0% |
Will Russia invade Estonia, Latvia, and/or Lithuania before 1 April 2027?
Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts
6 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 27, 2024 12:17AM UTC
(4 days ago)
Sep 27, 2024 12:17AM UTC
(4 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Estonia | 0% | 2% | -2% | +1% |
| Latvia | 0% | 1% | -1% | +0% |
| Lithuania | 0% | 1% | -1% | +0% |
Will Nicolás Maduro be president of Venezuela on 11 January 2025?
Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts
5 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 11, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Jan 11, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 27, 2024 12:19AM UTC
(4 days ago)
Sep 27, 2024 12:19AM UTC
(4 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 95% | 96% | -1% | +0% |
| No | 5% | 4% | +1% | +0% |
Will there be an attack on an Iranian nuclear- or offensive missile-related facility in the next 6 months?
Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts
5 Forecasts
Question Ends:
May 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)
May 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 27, 2024 12:19AM UTC
(4 days ago)
Sep 27, 2024 12:19AM UTC
(4 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 3% | Sep 27, 2024 to Mar 27, 2025 | Oct 27, 2024 | 16% | -13% | +7% |
| No | 97% | Sep 27, 2024 to Mar 27, 2025 | Oct 27, 2024 | 84% | +13% | -7% |
Will Israel declare war on Hezbollah in the next 6 months?
Forecast Count:
7 Forecasts
7 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Sep 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(11 months from now)
Sep 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(11 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 27, 2024 12:21AM UTC
(4 days ago)
Sep 27, 2024 12:21AM UTC
(4 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 65% | Sep 27, 2024 to Mar 27, 2025 | Oct 27, 2024 | 84% | -19% | -1% |
| No | 35% | Sep 27, 2024 to Mar 27, 2025 | Oct 27, 2024 | 16% | +19% | +1% |
Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 27, 2024 12:21AM UTC
(4 days ago)
Sep 27, 2024 12:21AM UTC
(4 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0% | Sep 27, 2024 to Mar 27, 2025 | Oct 27, 2024 | 0% | +0% | +0% |
| No | 100% | Sep 27, 2024 to Mar 27, 2025 | Oct 27, 2024 | 100% | +0% | +0% |