Confirmed previous forecast
2.864375
Relative Brier Score
23
Forecasts
1
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 23 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Definitions | |||||
Most Active Topics:
Decoding Disinformation,
Future Bowl,
Mission: AI Advancement
New Prediction
Will any of Meta's 2023 threat disruption reports indicate that a large language model may have been used to conduct an influence operation?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
60%
(0%)
Yes
40%
(0%)
No
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
70%
(-10%)
Yes
30%
(+10%)
No
Fast moving development not sure we'll be there.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
15%
(0%)
Yes
85%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
75%
(0%)
Yes
25%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
In collaboration with the UK Professional Head of Intelligence Assessment
Probability
Answer
10%
(0%)
Yes
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
60%
(+50%)
Yes
40%
(-50%)
No
Asked experts at Google. Don Metzler is working on this already.
Files
New Prediction
In collaboration with the UK Professional Head of Intelligence Assessment
Probability
Answer
85%
Yes
I believe that there are already countries where OpenAI's models are blocked e.g. China.
If the question addresses wether there are additional countries within that timeframe, it seems also very likely.
Files