Confirmed previous forecast
1.826997
Relative Brier Score
4
Forecasts
1
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Definitions | |||||
Most Active Topics:
Science & Technology,
Artificial Intelligence,
International Diplomacy & Conflict,
Russia-Ukraine War
Most Active Topics:
Mission: AI Advancement
New Prediction
Will OpenAI release a fifth generation of its generative pre-trained transformer model (GPT-5) to the general public in 2023?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
90%
(0%)
Yes
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
Less than or equal to 24
10%
Between 25 and 34, inclusive
90%
Between 35 and 44, inclusive
0%
Between 45 and 54, inclusive
0%
More than or equal to 55
Not that many cars
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
90%
Yes
Why do you think you're right?
Speaking at an MIT event in April '23, OpenAI CEO Sam Altman said “We are not and won’t for some time” when asked if OpenAI is training GPT-5.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Despite what Sam Altman said, sometimes things change.
"Speaking at an MIT event in April '23, OpenAI CEO Sam Altman said “We are not and won’t for some time” when asked if OpenAI is training GPT-5. "
Files
New Badge
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
20%
Yes
Putin has a strong position in leadership and attempts to overthrow him are challenging
Files