87th
Accuracy Rank

johnnycaffeine

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    Date Ended Question Relative Brier Score
    Aug 14, 2023 04:00AM From 1 August 2022 and 31 July 2023, will ACLED record 100 or more protest and riot-related fatalities in Brazil? -0.008392
    Aug 14, 2023 04:00AM From 1 August 2022 to 31 July 2023, will ACLED record 1,000 or more fatalities from conflict or political violence in Israel, Gaza, and the West Bank? -0.000014
    Aug 14, 2023 04:00AM From 1 August 2022 to 31 July 2023, will ACLED record at least 50 protests or riots or at least 10 protest- or riot-related fatalities in Saudi Arabia's Eastern Province? 0.0
    Aug 14, 2023 04:00AM From 1 August 2022 to 31 July 2023, will ACLED record 10,000 or more civilian fatalities in Ethiopia? 0.0
    Aug 14, 2023 04:00AM From 1 August 2022 to 31 July 2023, will ACLED record 1000 or more fatalities from conflicts or political violence in Kenya? 0.0
    Jul 20, 2023 08:00PM Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Jun 20, 2023 and Jul 20, 2023) -0.0002
    Jul 11, 2023 01:00PM Will Sweden become a full member of NATO before the NATO Summit in July 2023? -0.009601
    Jul 1, 2023 04:01AM Will the composition of Israel's current governing coalition change before 1 July 2023? -0.009215
    Jul 1, 2023 04:00AM Which of the following companies will announce a new neuromorphic chip or system by 30 June 2023? -0.004576
    Jun 20, 2023 08:00PM Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between May 20, 2023 and Jun 20, 2023) -0.0002
    Jun 1, 2023 12:45AM On 31 May 2023, how many total tax incentives will be listed in the Alternative Fuels Data Center? 0.009815
    May 23, 2023 03:04PM Will China seize control of any Taiwanese-occupied feature in the South China Sea in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Jan 17, 2022 and Aug 17, 2022) -0.000622
    May 20, 2023 08:00PM Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Apr 20, 2023 and May 20, 2023) -0.000147
    May 15, 2023 05:45PM Will Thailand hold a general election on or before 14 May 2023? -0.000112
    May 10, 2023 04:00PM What will Ginkgo Bioworks foundry revenue be in the first quarter of 2023? -0.148727
    Apr 21, 2023 04:49PM Will clashes between Chinese and Indian security forces result in 25 or more fatalities between 28 April 2022 and 1 April 2023? -0.001235
    Apr 17, 2023 04:00PM How will the U.S. rank in AI skills penetration in 2022? 0.027175
    Apr 17, 2023 04:00PM Which country or union will have the second most citations of "high impact" AI scientific publications in 2022? 0.005233
    Apr 17, 2023 04:00PM Will events involving Russian security forces result in 25 or more fatalities occurring in Georgia or Moldova before 1 April 2023? -0.031425
    Apr 17, 2023 04:00AM From 1 April 2022 to 1 April 2023, what will be the highest number of ACLED recorded protests/riots in a single calendar month in Russia? 0.001082
     
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