Forecasted Questions
Will Russia deliver the below weapons systems to Iran before 1 February 2025?
Forecast Count:
68 Forecasts
68 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Feb 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Feb 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 05, 2024 04:21PM UTC
(13 days ago)
Nov 05, 2024 04:21PM UTC
(13 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S-400 or S-500 missile system | 12% | 9% | +3% | +0% |
| Su-35 fighter jets | 3% | 6% | -3% | +0% |
Will a collaboration between Huawei and the O-RAN Alliance be announced before 1 October 2025?
Forecast Count:
29 Forecasts
29 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Oct 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(11 months from now)
Oct 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(11 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 05, 2024 04:49PM UTC
(13 days ago)
Nov 05, 2024 04:49PM UTC
(13 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 9% | 5% | +4% | +0% |
| No | 91% | 95% | -4% | +0% |
Will the Lebanese parliament elect a president in the next six months?
Forecast Count:
43 Forecasts
43 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 05, 2024 04:53PM UTC
(13 days ago)
Nov 05, 2024 04:53PM UTC
(13 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 7% | Nov 5, 2024 to May 5, 2025 | Feb 5, 2025 | 4% | +3% | -1% |
| No | 93% | Nov 5, 2024 to May 5, 2025 | Feb 5, 2025 | 96% | -3% | +1% |
Will the O-RAN Alliance’s specifications be integrated into 3GPP before 1 January 2027?
Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts
5 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 05, 2024 04:54PM UTC
(13 days ago)
Nov 05, 2024 04:54PM UTC
(13 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes, 3GPP will adopt and integrate O-RAN Alliance specifications | 38% | 33% | +5% | -1% |
| No, the O-RAN Alliance will continue to develop specifications independently of 3GPP | 60% | 64% | -4% | +1% |
| No, the O-RAN Alliance will stop developing specifications without being integrated into 3GPP | 2% | 3% | -1% | +0% |
Will another Chinese military base in an African country (excluding Djibouti) be under construction or established by 1 January 2027?
Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts
5 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 05, 2024 04:54PM UTC
(13 days ago)
Nov 05, 2024 04:54PM UTC
(13 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 42% | 36% | +6% | -3% |
| No | 58% | 64% | -6% | +3% |
Will Iran agree to limit uranium enrichment to 5% or less in the next 6 months?
Forecast Count:
59 Forecasts
59 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 05, 2024 04:54PM UTC
(13 days ago)
Nov 05, 2024 04:54PM UTC
(13 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0% | Nov 5, 2024 to May 5, 2025 | Feb 5, 2025 | 0% | +0% | +0% |
Will the Houthi movement and Yemen reach a ceasefire that is in effect on 31 December 2024 and lasts at least six months?
Forecast Count:
49 Forecasts
49 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 05, 2024 04:55PM UTC
(13 days ago)
Nov 05, 2024 04:55PM UTC
(13 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0% | 0% | +0% | +0% |
| No | 100% | 100% | +0% | +0% |
Before 1 January 2025, will Iran announce that it will leave the JCPOA ("Iran nuclear deal")?
Forecast Count:
64 Forecasts
64 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 05, 2024 04:55PM UTC
(13 days ago)
Nov 05, 2024 04:55PM UTC
(13 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0% | 1% | -1% | +0% |
| No | 100% | 99% | +1% | +0% |
Will Iran be at war with another country in the next year?
Forecast Count:
33 Forecasts
33 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 05, 2024 04:58PM UTC
(13 days ago)
Nov 05, 2024 04:58PM UTC
(13 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 9% | Nov 5, 2024 to Nov 5, 2025 | Feb 5, 2025 | 22% | -13% | +0% |
| No | 91% | Nov 5, 2024 to Nov 5, 2025 | Feb 5, 2025 | 78% | +13% | +0% |
Will at least five more exoplanets be found to be potentially habitable between 1 February 2024 and 31 December 2024?
Forecast Count:
26 Forecasts
26 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 05, 2024 05:01PM UTC
(13 days ago)
Nov 05, 2024 05:01PM UTC
(13 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 8% | 10% | -2% | -6% |
| No | 92% | 90% | +2% | +6% |