RAND Forecasting Initiative

What will be Germany’s net perception of Ukraine in the 2026 Munich Security Report?

Question Ends:
Oct 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(11 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 01, 2024 08:43PM UTC
(4 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than or equal to 9%	0%	0%	+0%	+0%
Between 10% and 19%, inclusive	29%	19%	+10%	+0%
Between 20% and 29%, inclusive	66%	72%	-6%	+2%
Between 30% and 39%, inclusive	5%	8%	-3%	-1%
More than or equal to 40%	0%	0%	+0%	+0%

What will be the risk index score for the perceived threat posed by Russia to Germany in the 2026 Munich Security Report?

Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Oct 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(11 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 01, 2024 08:44PM UTC
(4 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than or equal to 49	0%	0%	+0%	+0%
Between 50 and 59, inclusive	16%	12%	+4%	+0%
Between 60 and 69, inclusive	50%	55%	-5%	+0%
Between 70 and 79, inclusive	30%	31%	-1%	+0%
More than or equal to 80	4%	2%	+2%	+0%

Will North Korea engage in kinetic military action against a South Korean vessel, island, or other asset south of the Northern Limit Line in the Yellow Sea in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 01, 2024 08:44PM UTC
(4 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	10%	Nov 1, 2024 to May 1, 2025	Dec 1, 2024	15%	-5%	+4%
No	90%	Nov 1, 2024 to May 1, 2025	Dec 1, 2024	85%	+5%	-4%

Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test within the next six months?

Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 01, 2024 08:44PM UTC
(4 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	17%	Nov 1, 2024 to May 1, 2025	Dec 1, 2024	18%	-1%	-2%
No	83%	Nov 1, 2024 to May 1, 2025	Dec 1, 2024	82%	+1%	+2%

In the next 18 months, will a Russian government cyber attack occur against energy or transportation infrastructure within a NATO country that produces a kinetic effect, causing physical damage or human casualties?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 01, 2024 10:28PM UTC
(4 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	6%	Nov 1, 2024 to May 1, 2026	Feb 1, 2025	7%	-1%	+1%
No	94%	Nov 1, 2024 to May 1, 2026	Feb 1, 2025	93%	+1%	-1%

In the next 12 months, will a Large Language Model built by a Chinese organization rank in the top 3 overall on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 01, 2024 10:34PM UTC
(4 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	20%	Nov 1, 2024 to Nov 1, 2025	Dec 1, 2024	25%	-5%	-1%
No	80%	Nov 1, 2024 to Nov 1, 2025	Dec 1, 2024	75%	+5%	+1%

Will Huawei sell or announce plans to sell Open RAN equipment before 1 January 2027?

Forecast Count:
24 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 05, 2024 03:11PM UTC
(7 hours ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	27%	23%	+4%	+0%
No	73%	77%	-4%	+0%

In the next six months, will the Global Protest Tracker record an anti-government protest in Iran with 10,000 or more participants lasting at least a week?

Forecast Count:
48 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 05, 2024 03:12PM UTC
(7 hours ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	4%	Nov 5, 2024 to May 5, 2025	Dec 5, 2024	6%	-2%	-1%
No	96%	Nov 5, 2024 to May 5, 2025	Dec 5, 2024	94%	+2%	+1%

Will Ali Khamenei flee Iran or cease to be Supreme Leader in the next year?

Forecast Count:
33 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(5 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 05, 2024 03:14PM UTC
(7 hours ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	11%	Nov 5, 2024 to Nov 5, 2025	Feb 5, 2025	8%	+3%	+0%
No	89%	Nov 5, 2024 to Nov 5, 2025	Feb 5, 2025	92%	-3%	+0%

Will Russia invade Moldova, Armenia, Georgia, and/or Kazakhstan before 1 April 2027?

Forecast Count:
26 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 05, 2024 03:15PM UTC
(7 hours ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Moldova	6%	8%	-2%	+0%
Armenia	1%	2%	-1%	+0%
Georgia	6%	4%	+2%	+0%
Kazakhstan	1%	2%	-1%	+0%

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