Forecasted Questions
Will there be an attack on an Iranian nuclear- or offensive missile-related facility in the next 6 months?
Forecast Count:
18 Forecasts
18 Forecasts
Question Ends:
May 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)
May 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 24, 2024 09:20PM UTC
(6 days ago)
Sep 24, 2024 09:20PM UTC
(6 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 14% | Sep 24, 2024 to Mar 24, 2025 | Oct 24, 2024 | 16% | -2% | +7% |
| No | 86% | Sep 24, 2024 to Mar 24, 2025 | Oct 24, 2024 | 84% | +2% | -7% |
Will Iran be at war with another country in the next year?
Forecast Count:
25 Forecasts
25 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 24, 2024 09:21PM UTC
(6 days ago)
Sep 24, 2024 09:21PM UTC
(6 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 3% | Sep 24, 2024 to Sep 24, 2025 | Dec 24, 2024 | 8% | -5% | +2% |
| No | 97% | Sep 24, 2024 to Sep 24, 2025 | Dec 24, 2024 | 92% | +5% | -2% |
Will Israel declare war on Hezbollah in the next 6 months?
Forecast Count:
35 Forecasts
35 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Sep 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(11 months from now)
Sep 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(11 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 25, 2024 05:11PM UTC
(5 days ago)
Sep 25, 2024 05:11PM UTC
(5 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 100% | Sep 25, 2024 to Mar 25, 2025 | Oct 25, 2024 | 86% | +14% | +7% |
| No | 0% | Sep 25, 2024 to Mar 25, 2025 | Oct 25, 2024 | 14% | -14% | -7% |
Will Israel declare war on Hezbollah in the next 12 months?
Forecast Count:
33 Forecasts
33 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Sep 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(11 months from now)
Sep 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(11 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 25, 2024 05:11PM UTC
(5 days ago)
Sep 25, 2024 05:11PM UTC
(5 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 100% | Sep 25, 2024 to Sep 25, 2025 | Oct 25, 2024 | 87% | +13% | +17% |
| No | 0% | Sep 25, 2024 to Sep 25, 2025 | Oct 25, 2024 | 13% | -13% | -17% |