RAND Forecasting Initiative

Will the Houthi movement and Yemen reach a ceasefire that is in effect on 31 December 2024 and lasts at least six months?

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 19, 2024 10:51AM UTC
(6 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	0%	0%	+0%	+0%
No	100%	100%	+0%	+0%

Before 1 January 2025, will Iran announce that it will leave the JCPOA ("Iran nuclear deal")?

Forecast Count:
65 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 19, 2024 10:52AM UTC
(6 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	0%	1%	-1%	+0%
No	100%	99%	+1%	+0%

Will another Chinese military base in an African country (excluding Djibouti) be under construction or established by 1 January 2027?

Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 19, 2024 10:55AM UTC
(6 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	37%	35%	+2%	-1%
No	63%	65%	-2%	+1%

Will at least five more exoplanets be found to be potentially habitable between 1 February 2024 and 31 December 2024?

Forecast Count:
27 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 19, 2024 10:57AM UTC
(6 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	5%	8%	-3%	-2%
No	95%	92%	+3%	+2%

Will Wagner Group or Africa Corps deploy to Togo or an additional African country before 1 January 2026?

Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 19, 2024 11:01AM UTC
(6 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Togo	23%	24%	-1%	-1%
Any other African country with no previous Wagner or Africa Corps operations	45%	43%	+2%	+2%

Will there be a successful coup d’état in Africa in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
11 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 19, 2024 02:39PM UTC
(5 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	45%	Nov 19, 2024 to May 19, 2025	Dec 19, 2024	56%	-11%	-1%
No	55%	Nov 19, 2024 to May 19, 2025	Dec 19, 2024	44%	+11%	+1%

What will be Germany’s net perception of Ukraine in the 2026 Munich Security Report?

Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Oct 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(10 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 19, 2024 03:05PM UTC
(5 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than or equal to 9%	0%	1%	-1%	+0%
Between 10% and 19%, inclusive	29%	19%	+10%	-1%
Between 20% and 29%, inclusive	66%	72%	-6%	+0%
Between 30% and 39%, inclusive	5%	8%	-3%	+1%
More than or equal to 40%	0%	0%	+0%	+0%

What will be the risk index score for the perceived threat posed by Russia to Germany in the 2026 Munich Security Report?

Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Oct 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(10 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 19, 2024 03:10PM UTC
(5 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than or equal to 49	0%	1%	-1%	-1%
Between 50 and 59, inclusive	16%	13%	+3%	-1%
Between 60 and 69, inclusive	50%	51%	-1%	-1%
Between 70 and 79, inclusive	30%	34%	-4%	+3%
More than or equal to 80	4%	2%	+2%	+0%

Will North Korea engage in kinetic military action against a South Korean vessel, island, or other asset south of the Northern Limit Line in the Yellow Sea in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 19, 2024 03:31PM UTC
(5 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	10%	Nov 19, 2024 to May 19, 2025	Dec 19, 2024	8%	+2%	-6%
No	90%	Nov 19, 2024 to May 19, 2025	Dec 19, 2024	92%	-2%	+6%

Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test within the next six months?

Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 19, 2024 03:37PM UTC
(5 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	15%	Nov 19, 2024 to May 19, 2025	Dec 19, 2024	12%	+3%	-2%
No	85%	Nov 19, 2024 to May 19, 2025	Dec 19, 2024	88%	-3%	+2%

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