RAND Forecasting Initiative

Will Russia initiate a major ground offensive to attack the following Ukrainian cities before 31 December 2024?

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 28, 2024 10:01PM UTC
(2 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Kharkiv	5%	4%	+1%	+0%
Kyiv	1%	1%	+0%	+0%
Odesa	1%	1%	+0%	+0%

Will Russia invade Moldova, Armenia, Georgia, and/or Kazakhstan before 1 April 2027?

Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 28, 2024 10:34PM UTC
(2 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Moldova	3%	7%	-4%	+0%
Armenia	1%	1%	+0%	+0%
Georgia	7%	3%	+4%	+0%
Kazakhstan	1%	1%	+0%	0%

Will Russia invade Estonia, Latvia, and/or Lithuania before 1 April 2027?

Forecast Count:
7 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 29, 2024 07:00PM UTC
(1 day ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Estonia	1%	2%	-1%	+0%
Latvia	1%	1%	+0%	+0%
Lithuania	1%	1%	+0%	+0%

Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 July 2025?

Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(9 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 29, 2024 07:10PM UTC
(1 day ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	1%	1%	+0%	+0%
No	99%	99%	+0%	+0%

Will there be a successful coup d’état in Africa in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 30, 2024 04:50PM UTC
(7 hours ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	75%	Sep 30, 2024 to Mar 30, 2025	Oct 30, 2024	54%	+21%	+4%
No	25%	Sep 30, 2024 to Mar 30, 2025	Oct 30, 2024	46%	-21%	-4%

Will Wagner Group or Africa Corps deploy to Togo or an additional African country before 1 January 2026?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 30, 2024 07:20PM UTC
(4 hours ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Togo	51%	33%	+18%	+2%
Any other African country with no previous Wagner or Africa Corps operations	65%	40%	+25%	+2%

Will another Chinese military base in an African country (excluding Djibouti) be under construction or established by 1 January 2027?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 30, 2024 08:17PM UTC
(3 hours ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	15%	41%	-26%	+0%
No	85%	59%	+26%	+0%

Will there be an attack on an Iranian nuclear- or offensive missile-related facility in the next 6 months?

Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts

Question Ends:
May 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 30, 2024 09:02PM UTC
(3 hours ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	65%	Sep 30, 2024 to Mar 30, 2025	Oct 30, 2024	16%	+49%	+2%
No	35%	Sep 30, 2024 to Mar 30, 2025	Oct 30, 2024	84%	-49%	-2%

Will Iran be at war with another country in the next year?

Forecast Count:
8 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 30, 2024 09:04PM UTC
(3 hours ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	25%	Sep 30, 2024 to Sep 30, 2025	Dec 30, 2024	8%	+17%	+1%
No	75%	Sep 30, 2024 to Sep 30, 2025	Dec 30, 2024	92%	-17%	-1%

Will Israel declare war on Hezbollah in the next 6 months?

Forecast Count:
9 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Sep 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(11 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 30, 2024 09:33PM UTC
(2 hours ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	65%	Sep 30, 2024 to Mar 30, 2025	Oct 30, 2024	84%	-19%	+1%
No	35%	Sep 30, 2024 to Mar 30, 2025	Oct 30, 2024	16%	+19%	-1%

o-maverick

About: