RAND Forecasting Initiative

What percentage of global semiconductor revenue will come from the Americas region in 2024?

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 30, 2024 11:15PM UTC
(22 minutes ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than 24%	0%	0%	+0%	0%
More than or equal to 24% but less than 26%	0%	0%	+0%	+0%
More than or equal to 26% but less than 28%	55%	22%	+33%	+1%
More than or equal to 28%	45%	77%	-32%	-1%

Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 30, 2024 11:15PM UTC
(22 minutes ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	3%	Sep 30, 2024 to Mar 30, 2025	Oct 30, 2024	0%	+3%	+0%
No	97%	Sep 30, 2024 to Mar 30, 2025	Oct 30, 2024	100%	-3%	+0%

Which of the following territorial developments between Venezuela and Guyana will occur before 1 August 2025?

Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Aug 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(10 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 30, 2024 11:15PM UTC
(22 minutes ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Venezuela conducts a ground invasion of Guyana	5%	3%	+2%	+0%
Venezuela attacks offshore Guyanese oil wells	18%	4%	+14%	+0%
Venezuela relinquishes its claim on Essequibo	0%	1%	-1%	0%
Guyana agrees to cede some or all of Essequibo	0%	1%	-1%	0%

By 31 December 2024, will Microsoft announce that its AI Research Lab in China is closing or being relocated?

Forecast Count:
8 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Dec 30, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 30, 2024 11:15PM UTC
(22 minutes ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	5%	5%	+0%	0%
No	95%	95%	+0%	0%

Will any of the following countries recognize Israel’s statehood by 31 December 2024?

Forecast Count:
13 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 30, 2024 11:15PM UTC
(22 minutes ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Kuwait	0%	2%	-2%	0%
Oman	0%	2%	-2%	0%
Qatar	0%	1%	-1%	0%
Saudi Arabia	0%	3%	-3%	0%
Tunisia	0%	1%	-1%	0%

Will a JCPOA participant country begin the process of imposing “snapback” sanctions on Iran by 31 December 2024?

Forecast Count:
14 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 30, 2024 11:15PM UTC
(22 minutes ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	1%	1%	+0%	0%
No	99%	99%	+0%	0%

By 31 December 2024, will uranium enriched to 90% or more be discovered in an Iranian facility, according to the IAEA?

Forecast Count:
14 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 30, 2024 11:15PM UTC
(22 minutes ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	5%	1%	+4%	0%
No	95%	99%	-4%	0%

Before 1 January 2025, will Iran announce that it will leave the JCPOA ("Iran nuclear deal")?

Forecast Count:
13 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 30, 2024 11:15PM UTC
(22 minutes ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	1%	1%	+0%	0%
No	99%	99%	+0%	0%

Will Iran agree to limit uranium enrichment to 5% or less in the next 6 months?

Forecast Count:
12 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 30, 2024 11:17PM UTC
(20 minutes ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	1%	Sep 30, 2024 to Mar 30, 2025	Dec 30, 2024	0%	+1%	+0%

Will Iran eliminate its stockpile of uranium enriched up to 60% by 31 December 2024, according to the IAEA?

Forecast Count:
12 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 30, 2024 11:24PM UTC
(13 minutes ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes, the stockpile will be reduced by 100% to 0 kg	0%	0%	+0%	+0%
No, the stockpile will be reduced by 50% or more (>0 kg - 61.8 kg)	0%	0%	+0%	+0%
No, the stockpile will be reduced by less than 50% (>61.8 kg - 123.6 kg)	1%	1%	+0%	+0%
No, the stockpile will increase (>123.6 kg)	99%	99%	+0%	+0%

o-maverick

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