RAND Forecasting Initiative

Will there be a successful coup d’état in Africa in the next six months?

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 31, 2024 09:44PM UTC
(22 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	75%	Oct 31, 2024 to Apr 30, 2025	Nov 30, 2024	57%	+18%	+9%
No	25%	Oct 31, 2024 to Apr 30, 2025	Nov 30, 2024	43%	-18%	-9%

Will Wagner Group or Africa Corps deploy to Togo or an additional African country before 1 January 2026?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 31, 2024 09:44PM UTC
(22 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Togo	51%	24%	+27%	-2%
Any other African country with no previous Wagner or Africa Corps operations	65%	39%	+26%	+4%

Will another Chinese military base in an African country (excluding Djibouti) be under construction or established by 1 January 2027?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 31, 2024 09:44PM UTC
(22 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	15%	35%	-20%	-4%
No	85%	65%	+20%	+4%

Will there be an agreed-upon pause in the conflict between Israel and Hamas that starts before 1 December 2024 and lasts at least 30 days?

Forecast Count:
11 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Dec 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(9 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 31, 2024 09:56PM UTC
(22 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	0%	8%	-8%	-4%
No	100%	92%	+8%	+4%

Will Israel and Saudi Arabia publicly acknowledge that they are resuming the normalization process in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
11 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 31, 2024 09:57PM UTC
(22 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	1%	Oct 31, 2024 to Apr 30, 2025	Nov 30, 2024	1%	+0%	+0%
No	99%	Oct 31, 2024 to Apr 30, 2025	Nov 30, 2024	99%	+0%	+0%

Will the Houthi movement and Yemen reach a ceasefire that is in effect on 31 December 2024 and lasts at least six months?

Forecast Count:
10 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 31, 2024 09:57PM UTC
(22 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	0%	0%	+0%	+0%
No	100%	100%	+0%	+0%

Will any listed Muslim-majority country sign an agreement establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
9 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 31, 2024 09:57PM UTC
(22 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	0%	Oct 31, 2024 to Apr 30, 2025	Nov 30, 2024	1%	-1%	+0%
No	100%	Oct 31, 2024 to Apr 30, 2025	Nov 30, 2024	99%	+1%	+0%

Will Russia deliver the below weapons systems to Iran before 1 February 2025?

Forecast Count:
13 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Feb 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 31, 2024 10:07PM UTC
(22 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
S-400 or S-500 missile system	13%	9%	+4%	-1%
Su-35 fighter jets	13%	6%	+7%	+0%

Will Nicolás Maduro be president of Venezuela on 11 January 2025?

Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 11, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 31, 2024 10:07PM UTC
(22 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	95%	97%	-2%	+1%
No	5%	3%	+2%	-1%

On 31 May 2025, will Nvidia be the world’s most valuable company by market cap?

Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts

Question Ends:
May 03, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(5 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 31, 2024 10:14PM UTC
(22 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	70%	34%	+36%	+12%
No	30%	66%	-36%	-12%

o-maverick

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