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o-maverick

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Forecasted Questions
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What percentage of global semiconductor revenue will come from the Americas region in 2024?

Forecast Count:
 4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Oct 31, 2024 10:14PM UTC
(22 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Less than 24% 0% 0%
More than or equal to 24% but less than 26% 0% 1%
More than or equal to 26% but less than 28% 55% 4%
More than or equal to 28% 45% 94%

Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
 4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Oct 31, 2024 10:15PM UTC
(22 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Forecast Window Forecast Expiration Current Consensus
Yes 1% Oct 31, 2024 to Apr 30, 2025 Nov 30, 2024 0%
No 99% Oct 31, 2024 to Apr 30, 2025 Nov 30, 2024 100%

Which of the following territorial developments between Venezuela and Guyana will occur before 1 August 2025?

Forecast Count:
 4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Aug 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Oct 31, 2024 10:15PM UTC
(22 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Venezuela conducts a ground invasion of Guyana 5% 3%
Venezuela attacks offshore Guyanese oil wells 18% 5%
Venezuela relinquishes its claim on Essequibo 0% 1%
Guyana agrees to cede some or all of Essequibo 0% 1%

By 31 December 2024, will Microsoft announce that its AI Research Lab in China is closing or being relocated?

Forecast Count:
 9 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Dec 30, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Oct 31, 2024 10:15PM UTC
(22 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 5% 5%
No 95% 95%

Will any of the following countries recognize Israel’s statehood by 31 December 2024?

Forecast Count:
 14 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Oct 31, 2024 10:15PM UTC
(22 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Kuwait 0% 1%
Oman 0% 2%
Qatar 0% 1%
Saudi Arabia 0% 2%
Tunisia 0% 1%

Will a JCPOA participant country begin the process of imposing “snapback” sanctions on Iran by 31 December 2024?

Forecast Count:
 15 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Oct 31, 2024 10:15PM UTC
(22 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 1% 1%
No 99% 99%

By 31 December 2024, will uranium enriched to 90% or more be discovered in an Iranian facility, according to the IAEA?

Forecast Count:
 15 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Oct 31, 2024 10:15PM UTC
(22 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 5% 1%
No 95% 99%

Before 1 January 2025, will Iran announce that it will leave the JCPOA ("Iran nuclear deal")?

Forecast Count:
 14 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Oct 31, 2024 10:15PM UTC
(22 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 1% 1%
No 99% 99%

Will Iran agree to limit uranium enrichment to 5% or less in the next 6 months?

Forecast Count:
 13 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Oct 31, 2024 10:15PM UTC
(22 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Forecast Window Forecast Expiration Current Consensus
Yes 1% Oct 31, 2024 to Apr 30, 2025 Jan 31, 2025 0%

Will Iran eliminate its stockpile of uranium enriched up to 60% by 31 December 2024, according to the IAEA?

Forecast Count:
 13 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Oct 31, 2024 10:16PM UTC
(22 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes, the stockpile will be reduced by 100% to 0 kg 0% 0%
No, the stockpile will be reduced by 50% or more (>0 kg - 61.8 kg) 0% 0%
No, the stockpile will be reduced by less than 50% (>61.8 kg - 123.6 kg) 1% 1%
No, the stockpile will increase (>123.6 kg) 99% 99%
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