RAND Forecasting Initiative

Will Israel declare war on Hezbollah in the next 12 months?

Question Ends:
Sep 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(11 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 30, 2024 09:33PM UTC
(2 hours ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	65%	Sep 30, 2024 to Sep 30, 2025	Oct 30, 2024	87%	-22%	+1%
No	35%	Sep 30, 2024 to Sep 30, 2025	Oct 30, 2024	13%	+22%	-1%

Will there be an agreed-upon pause in the conflict between Israel and Hamas that starts before 1 December 2024 and lasts at least 30 days?

Forecast Count:
10 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Dec 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 30, 2024 09:49PM UTC
(2 hours ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	5%	22%	-17%	+0%
No	95%	78%	+17%	+0%

In the next six months, will the Global Protest Tracker record an anti-government protest in Iran with 10,000 or more participants lasting at least a week?

Forecast Count:
10 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 30, 2024 10:03PM UTC
(2 hours ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	15%	Sep 30, 2024 to Mar 30, 2025	Oct 30, 2024	6%	+9%	+0%
No	85%	Sep 30, 2024 to Mar 30, 2025	Oct 30, 2024	94%	-9%	+0%

Will Israel and Saudi Arabia publicly acknowledge that they are resuming the normalization process in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
10 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 30, 2024 10:03PM UTC
(2 hours ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	1%	Sep 30, 2024 to Mar 30, 2025	Oct 30, 2024	0%	+1%	0%
No	99%	Sep 30, 2024 to Mar 30, 2025	Oct 30, 2024	100%	-1%	0%

Will Iran launch missiles or conduct an airstrike against U.S. forces in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
10 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 30, 2024 10:32PM UTC
(1 hour ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	18%	Sep 30, 2024 to Mar 30, 2025	Oct 30, 2024	1%	+17%	+0%
No	82%	Sep 30, 2024 to Mar 30, 2025	Oct 30, 2024	99%	-17%	+0%

Will the Houthi movement and Yemen reach a ceasefire that is in effect on 31 December 2024 and lasts at least six months?

Forecast Count:
9 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 30, 2024 10:33PM UTC
(1 hour ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	0%	0%	+0%	0%
No	100%	100%	+0%	0%

Will any listed Muslim-majority country sign an agreement establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
8 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 30, 2024 10:33PM UTC
(1 hour ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	0%	Sep 30, 2024 to Mar 30, 2025	Oct 30, 2024	0%	+0%	+0%
No	100%	Sep 30, 2024 to Mar 30, 2025	Oct 30, 2024	100%	+0%	+0%

Will Russia deliver the below weapons systems to Iran before 1 February 2025?

Forecast Count:
12 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Feb 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(4 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 30, 2024 11:01PM UTC
(36 minutes ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
S-400 or S-500 missile system	30%	9%	+21%	0%
Su-35 fighter jets	15%	7%	+8%	0%

Will Nicolás Maduro be president of Venezuela on 11 January 2025?

Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 11, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 30, 2024 11:13PM UTC
(24 minutes ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	95%	96%	-1%	+0%
No	5%	4%	+1%	+0%

On 31 May 2025, will Nvidia be the world’s most valuable company by market cap?

Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts

Question Ends:
May 03, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 30, 2024 11:14PM UTC
(23 minutes ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	25%	11%	+14%	+0%
No	75%	89%	-14%	+0%

o-maverick

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