Forecasted Questions
Will at least five more exoplanets be found to be potentially habitable between 1 February 2024 and 31 December 2024?
You quit this question on Jul 31, 2024 02:00AM and have no active forecasts.
You won't receive scores for days you quit unless you make a new forecast.
Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts
5 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jul 01, 2024 02:07AM UTC
(4 months ago)
Jul 01, 2024 02:07AM UTC
(4 months ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 80% | 15% | +65% | -61% |
No | 20% | 85% | -65% | +61% |
Will Ali Khamenei flee Iran or cease to be Supreme Leader in the next year?
Forecast Count:
8 Forecasts
8 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(5 months from now)
Apr 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(5 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 04, 2024 09:25PM UTC
(1 month ago)
Oct 04, 2024 09:25PM UTC
(1 month ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 25% | Oct 4, 2024 to Oct 4, 2025 | Jan 4, 2025 | 8% | +17% | +0% |
No | 75% | Oct 4, 2024 to Oct 4, 2025 | Jan 4, 2025 | 92% | -17% | +0% |
Will Iran be at war with another country in the next year?
Forecast Count:
9 Forecasts
9 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 04, 2024 09:28PM UTC
(1 month ago)
Oct 04, 2024 09:28PM UTC
(1 month ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 55% | Oct 4, 2024 to Oct 4, 2025 | Jan 4, 2025 | 22% | +33% | -3% |
No | 45% | Oct 4, 2024 to Oct 4, 2025 | Jan 4, 2025 | 78% | -33% | +3% |
What will be Germany’s net perception of Ukraine in the 2026 Munich Security Report?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Oct 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(11 months from now)
Oct 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(11 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 31, 2024 02:09AM UTC
(6 days ago)
Oct 31, 2024 02:09AM UTC
(6 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Less than or equal to 9% | 1% | 0% | +1% | +0% |
Between 10% and 19%, inclusive | 34% | 19% | +15% | +1% |
Between 20% and 29%, inclusive | 51% | 72% | -21% | +1% |
Between 30% and 39%, inclusive | 13% | 8% | +5% | -1% |
More than or equal to 40% | 1% | 0% | +1% | +0% |
What will be the risk index score for the perceived threat posed by Russia to Germany in the 2026 Munich Security Report?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Oct 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(11 months from now)
Oct 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(11 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 31, 2024 02:34AM UTC
(6 days ago)
Oct 31, 2024 02:34AM UTC
(6 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Less than or equal to 49 | 1% | 0% | +1% | +0% |
Between 50 and 59, inclusive | 21% | 12% | +9% | +0% |
Between 60 and 69, inclusive | 51% | 55% | -4% | +1% |
Between 70 and 79, inclusive | 20% | 31% | -11% | +0% |
More than or equal to 80 | 7% | 2% | +5% | +0% |
Will the Latin American governments listed (Argentina, Bolivia, Ecuador) cease to service their external debt and enter into default before 1 October 2025?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Oct 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(11 months from now)
Oct 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(11 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 31, 2024 03:05AM UTC
(6 days ago)
Oct 31, 2024 03:05AM UTC
(6 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Argentina | 2% | 20% | -18% | +0% |
Bolivia | 10% | 23% | -13% | -3% |
Ecuador | 15% | 12% | +3% | -2% |
In the next 12 months, will a Large Language Model built by a Chinese organization rank in the top 3 overall on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 31, 2024 03:44AM UTC
(6 days ago)
Oct 31, 2024 03:44AM UTC
(6 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 51% | Oct 31, 2024 to Oct 31, 2025 | Nov 30, 2024 | 25% | +26% | -8% |
No | 49% | Oct 31, 2024 to Oct 31, 2025 | Nov 30, 2024 | 75% | -26% | +8% |
Will North Korea engage in kinetic military action against a South Korean vessel, island, or other asset south of the Northern Limit Line in the Yellow Sea in the next six months?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 31, 2024 04:21PM UTC
(5 days ago)
Oct 31, 2024 04:21PM UTC
(5 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 5% | Oct 31, 2024 to Apr 30, 2025 | Nov 30, 2024 | 15% | -10% | +4% |
No | 95% | Oct 31, 2024 to Apr 30, 2025 | Nov 30, 2024 | 85% | +10% | -4% |
Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test within the next six months?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 31, 2024 04:58PM UTC
(5 days ago)
Oct 31, 2024 04:58PM UTC
(5 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 5% | Oct 31, 2024 to Apr 30, 2025 | Nov 30, 2024 | 18% | -13% | -4% |
No | 95% | Oct 31, 2024 to Apr 30, 2025 | Nov 30, 2024 | 82% | +13% | +4% |
In the next 18 months, will a Russian government cyber attack occur against energy or transportation infrastructure within a NATO country that produces a kinetic effect, causing physical damage or human casualties?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 31, 2024 05:18PM UTC
(5 days ago)
Oct 31, 2024 05:18PM UTC
(5 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 1% | Oct 31, 2024 to Apr 30, 2026 | Jan 31, 2025 | 7% | -6% | +2% |
No | 99% | Oct 31, 2024 to Apr 30, 2026 | Jan 31, 2025 | 93% | +6% | -2% |