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o-maverick

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Forecasted Questions

Will at least five more exoplanets be found to be potentially habitable between 1 February 2024 and 31 December 2024?

You quit this question on Jul 31, 2024 02:00AM and have no active forecasts. You won't receive scores for days you quit unless you make a new forecast.
Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jul 01, 2024 02:07AM UTC
(4 months ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 80% 15%
No 20% 85%

Will Ali Khamenei flee Iran or cease to be Supreme Leader in the next year?

Forecast Count:
8 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(5 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 04, 2024 09:25PM UTC
(1 month ago)
Answer Your Forecast Forecast Window Forecast Expiration Current Consensus
Yes 25% Oct 4, 2024 to Oct 4, 2025 Jan 4, 2025 8%
No 75% Oct 4, 2024 to Oct 4, 2025 Jan 4, 2025 92%

Will Iran be at war with another country in the next year?

Forecast Count:
9 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 04, 2024 09:28PM UTC
(1 month ago)
Answer Your Forecast Forecast Window Forecast Expiration Current Consensus
Yes 55% Oct 4, 2024 to Oct 4, 2025 Jan 4, 2025 22%
No 45% Oct 4, 2024 to Oct 4, 2025 Jan 4, 2025 78%

What will be Germany’s net perception of Ukraine in the 2026 Munich Security Report?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Oct 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(11 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 31, 2024 02:09AM UTC
(6 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Less than or equal to 9% 1% 0%
Between 10% and 19%, inclusive 34% 19%
Between 20% and 29%, inclusive 51% 72%
Between 30% and 39%, inclusive 13% 8%
More than or equal to 40% 1% 0%

What will be the risk index score for the perceived threat posed by Russia to Germany in the 2026 Munich Security Report?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Oct 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(11 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 31, 2024 02:34AM UTC
(6 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Less than or equal to 49 1% 0%
Between 50 and 59, inclusive 21% 12%
Between 60 and 69, inclusive 51% 55%
Between 70 and 79, inclusive 20% 31%
More than or equal to 80 7% 2%

Will the Latin American governments listed (Argentina, Bolivia, Ecuador) cease to service their external debt and enter into default before 1 October 2025?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Oct 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(11 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 31, 2024 03:05AM UTC
(6 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Argentina 2% 20%
Bolivia 10% 23%
Ecuador 15% 12%

In the next 12 months, will a Large Language Model built by a Chinese organization rank in the top 3 overall on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 31, 2024 03:44AM UTC
(6 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Forecast Window Forecast Expiration Current Consensus
Yes 51% Oct 31, 2024 to Oct 31, 2025 Nov 30, 2024 25%
No 49% Oct 31, 2024 to Oct 31, 2025 Nov 30, 2024 75%

Will North Korea engage in kinetic military action against a South Korean vessel, island, or other asset south of the Northern Limit Line in the Yellow Sea in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 31, 2024 04:21PM UTC
(5 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Forecast Window Forecast Expiration Current Consensus
Yes 5% Oct 31, 2024 to Apr 30, 2025 Nov 30, 2024 15%
No 95% Oct 31, 2024 to Apr 30, 2025 Nov 30, 2024 85%

Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test within the next six months?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 31, 2024 04:58PM UTC
(5 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Forecast Window Forecast Expiration Current Consensus
Yes 5% Oct 31, 2024 to Apr 30, 2025 Nov 30, 2024 18%
No 95% Oct 31, 2024 to Apr 30, 2025 Nov 30, 2024 82%

In the next 18 months, will a Russian government cyber attack occur against energy or transportation infrastructure within a NATO country that produces a kinetic effect, causing physical damage or human casualties?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 31, 2024 05:18PM UTC
(5 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Forecast Window Forecast Expiration Current Consensus
Yes 1% Oct 31, 2024 to Apr 30, 2026 Jan 31, 2025 7%
No 99% Oct 31, 2024 to Apr 30, 2026 Jan 31, 2025 93%
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