Forecasted Questions
Will Russia initiate a major ground offensive to attack the following Ukrainian cities before 31 December 2024?
Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts
6 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 28, 2024 10:01PM UTC
(2 days ago)
Sep 28, 2024 10:01PM UTC
(2 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Kharkiv | 5% | 4% | +1% | +0% |
Kyiv | 1% | 1% | +0% | +0% |
Odesa | 1% | 1% | +0% | +0% |
Will Russia invade Moldova, Armenia, Georgia, and/or Kazakhstan before 1 April 2027?
Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts
6 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 28, 2024 10:34PM UTC
(2 days ago)
Sep 28, 2024 10:34PM UTC
(2 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Moldova | 3% | 7% | -4% | +0% |
Armenia | 1% | 1% | +0% | +0% |
Georgia | 7% | 3% | +4% | +0% |
Kazakhstan | 1% | 1% | +0% | 0% |
Will Russia invade Estonia, Latvia, and/or Lithuania before 1 April 2027?
Forecast Count:
7 Forecasts
7 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 29, 2024 07:00PM UTC
(1 day ago)
Sep 29, 2024 07:00PM UTC
(1 day ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Estonia | 1% | 2% | -1% | +0% |
Latvia | 1% | 1% | +0% | +0% |
Lithuania | 1% | 1% | +0% | +0% |
Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 July 2025?
Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(9 months from now)
Jul 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(9 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 29, 2024 07:10PM UTC
(1 day ago)
Sep 29, 2024 07:10PM UTC
(1 day ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 1% | 1% | +0% | +0% |
No | 99% | 99% | +0% | +0% |
Will there be a successful coup d’état in Africa in the next six months?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 30, 2024 04:50PM UTC
(9 hours ago)
Sep 30, 2024 04:50PM UTC
(9 hours ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 75% | Sep 30, 2024 to Mar 30, 2025 | Oct 30, 2024 | 54% | +21% | +4% |
No | 25% | Sep 30, 2024 to Mar 30, 2025 | Oct 30, 2024 | 46% | -21% | -4% |
Will Wagner Group or Africa Corps deploy to Togo or an additional African country before 1 January 2026?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 30, 2024 07:20PM UTC
(6 hours ago)
Sep 30, 2024 07:20PM UTC
(6 hours ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Togo | 51% | 33% | +18% | +2% |
Any other African country with no previous Wagner or Africa Corps operations | 65% | 40% | +25% | +2% |
Will another Chinese military base in an African country (excluding Djibouti) be under construction or established by 1 January 2027?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 30, 2024 08:17PM UTC
(5 hours ago)
Sep 30, 2024 08:17PM UTC
(5 hours ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 15% | 41% | -26% | -1% |
No | 85% | 59% | +26% | +1% |
Will there be an attack on an Iranian nuclear- or offensive missile-related facility in the next 6 months?
Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts
5 Forecasts
Question Ends:
May 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)
May 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 30, 2024 09:02PM UTC
(5 hours ago)
Sep 30, 2024 09:02PM UTC
(5 hours ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 65% | Sep 30, 2024 to Mar 30, 2025 | Oct 30, 2024 | 16% | +49% | +2% |
No | 35% | Sep 30, 2024 to Mar 30, 2025 | Oct 30, 2024 | 84% | -49% | -2% |
Will Iran be at war with another country in the next year?
Forecast Count:
8 Forecasts
8 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 30, 2024 09:04PM UTC
(5 hours ago)
Sep 30, 2024 09:04PM UTC
(5 hours ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 25% | Sep 30, 2024 to Sep 30, 2025 | Dec 30, 2024 | 8% | +17% | +1% |
No | 75% | Sep 30, 2024 to Sep 30, 2025 | Dec 30, 2024 | 92% | -17% | -1% |
Will Israel declare war on Hezbollah in the next 6 months?
Forecast Count:
9 Forecasts
9 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Sep 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(11 months from now)
Sep 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(11 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 30, 2024 09:33PM UTC
(4 hours ago)
Sep 30, 2024 09:33PM UTC
(4 hours ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 65% | Sep 30, 2024 to Mar 30, 2025 | Oct 30, 2024 | 86% | -21% | +2% |
No | 35% | Sep 30, 2024 to Mar 30, 2025 | Oct 30, 2024 | 14% | +21% | -2% |