He appears to be currently safe and in charge and death is the only thing that will take him out of office.
-0.000181
Relative Brier Score
2
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Definitions | |||||
Most Active Topics:
Artificial Intelligence,
International Diplomacy & Conflict,
Russia-Ukraine War,
Science & Technology
Most Active Topics:
Mission: Diplomacy
New Prediction
New Badge
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
Yes
Files
Why do you think you're right?
They have denied it, and being close to a large pool of experts could be valuable for them.
Why might you be wrong?
A change in international business relations or an attack on Taiwan.