Forecasted Questions
Will a collaboration between Huawei and the O-RAN Alliance be announced before 1 October 2025?
Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts
4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Oct 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Oct 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 29, 2024 08:59PM UTC
(1 day ago)
Sep 29, 2024 08:59PM UTC
(1 day ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 10% | 6% | +4% | +0% |
No | 90% | 94% | -4% | +0% |
Will Iran agree to limit uranium enrichment to 5% or less in the next 6 months?
Forecast Count:
13 Forecasts
13 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 29, 2024 08:59PM UTC
(1 day ago)
Sep 29, 2024 08:59PM UTC
(1 day ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 0% | Sep 29, 2024 to Mar 29, 2025 | Dec 29, 2024 | 0% | +0% | 0% |
Will there be an attack on an Iranian nuclear- or offensive missile-related facility in the next 6 months?
Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
May 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)
May 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 29, 2024 09:01PM UTC
(1 day ago)
Sep 29, 2024 09:01PM UTC
(1 day ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 17% | Sep 29, 2024 to Mar 29, 2025 | Oct 29, 2024 | 16% | +1% | +3% |
No | 83% | Sep 29, 2024 to Mar 29, 2025 | Oct 29, 2024 | 84% | -1% | -3% |
Will Iran launch missiles or conduct an airstrike against U.S. forces in the next six months?
Forecast Count:
9 Forecasts
9 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 29, 2024 09:02PM UTC
(1 day ago)
Sep 29, 2024 09:02PM UTC
(1 day ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 1% | Sep 29, 2024 to Mar 29, 2025 | Oct 29, 2024 | 1% | +0% | +0% |
No | 99% | Sep 29, 2024 to Mar 29, 2025 | Oct 29, 2024 | 99% | +0% | +0% |
Will any listed Muslim-majority country sign an agreement establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel in the next six months?
Forecast Count:
8 Forecasts
8 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 29, 2024 09:02PM UTC
(1 day ago)
Sep 29, 2024 09:02PM UTC
(1 day ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 0% | Sep 29, 2024 to Mar 29, 2025 | Oct 29, 2024 | 0% | +0% | 0% |
No | 100% | Sep 29, 2024 to Mar 29, 2025 | Oct 29, 2024 | 100% | +0% | 0% |
Will Israel and Saudi Arabia publicly acknowledge that they are resuming the normalization process in the next six months?
Forecast Count:
10 Forecasts
10 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 29, 2024 09:03PM UTC
(1 day ago)
Sep 29, 2024 09:03PM UTC
(1 day ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 0% | Sep 29, 2024 to Mar 29, 2025 | Oct 29, 2024 | 0% | +0% | +0% |
No | 100% | Sep 29, 2024 to Mar 29, 2025 | Oct 29, 2024 | 100% | +0% | +0% |
In the next six months, will the Global Protest Tracker record an anti-government protest in Iran with 10,000 or more participants lasting at least a week?
Forecast Count:
10 Forecasts
10 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 29, 2024 09:04PM UTC
(1 day ago)
Sep 29, 2024 09:04PM UTC
(1 day ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 5% | Sep 29, 2024 to Mar 29, 2025 | Oct 29, 2024 | 6% | -1% | -2% |
No | 95% | Sep 29, 2024 to Mar 29, 2025 | Oct 29, 2024 | 94% | +1% | +2% |
Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 29, 2024 09:05PM UTC
(1 day ago)
Sep 29, 2024 09:05PM UTC
(1 day ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 1% | Sep 29, 2024 to Mar 29, 2025 | Oct 29, 2024 | 0% | +1% | +0% |
No | 99% | Sep 29, 2024 to Mar 29, 2025 | Oct 29, 2024 | 100% | -1% | +0% |
Will Russia invade Moldova, Armenia, Georgia, and/or Kazakhstan before 1 April 2027?
Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts
4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 29, 2024 09:07PM UTC
(1 day ago)
Sep 29, 2024 09:07PM UTC
(1 day ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Moldova | 5% | 7% | -2% | +0% |
Armenia | 1% | 1% | +0% | +0% |
Georgia | 1% | 3% | -2% | +0% |
Kazakhstan | 1% | 1% | +0% | 0% |
Will Nicolás Maduro be president of Venezuela on 11 January 2025?
Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts
4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 11, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Jan 11, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 29, 2024 09:07PM UTC
(1 day ago)
Sep 29, 2024 09:07PM UTC
(1 day ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 100% | 96% | +4% | +0% |
No | 0% | 4% | -4% | +0% |