50th
Accuracy Rank

thsavage

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Forecasted Questions

Will Iran agree to limit uranium enrichment to 5% or less in the next 6 months?

Forecast Count:
17 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 17, 2024 06:57AM UTC
(1 month ago)
Answer Your Forecast Forecast Window Forecast Expiration Current Consensus
Yes 0% Oct 17, 2024 to Apr 17, 2025 Jan 17, 2025 0%

In the next 18 months, will a Russian government cyber attack occur against energy or transportation infrastructure within a NATO country that produces a kinetic effect, causing physical damage or human casualties?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 17, 2024 07:14AM UTC
(1 month ago)
Answer Your Forecast Forecast Window Forecast Expiration Current Consensus
Yes 7% Oct 17, 2024 to Apr 17, 2026 Jan 17, 2025 12%
No 93% Oct 17, 2024 to Apr 17, 2026 Jan 17, 2025 88%

Will at least five more exoplanets be found to be potentially habitable between 1 February 2024 and 31 December 2024?

Forecast Count:
8 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 25, 2024 07:31AM UTC
(28 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 20% 9%
No 80% 91%

Will Iran be at war with another country in the next year?

Forecast Count:
7 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 27, 2024 12:12AM UTC
(27 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Forecast Window Forecast Expiration Current Consensus
Yes 27% Oct 27, 2024 to Oct 27, 2025 Jan 27, 2025 22%
No 73% Oct 27, 2024 to Oct 27, 2025 Jan 27, 2025 78%

Will Myanmar hold national elections before 1 July 2025?

Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 27, 2024 12:13AM UTC
(27 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 0% 2%
No 100% 98%

On 31 May 2025, will Nvidia be the world’s most valuable company by market cap?

Forecast Count:
8 Forecasts
Question Ends:
May 03, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(5 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 27, 2024 12:17AM UTC
(27 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 25% 34%
No 75% 66%

In the next six months, will the Global Protest Tracker record an anti-government protest in Iran with 10,000 or more participants lasting at least a week?

Forecast Count:
10 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 27, 2024 12:21AM UTC
(27 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Forecast Window Forecast Expiration Current Consensus
Yes 12% Oct 27, 2024 to Apr 27, 2025 Nov 27, 2024 7%
No 88% Oct 27, 2024 to Apr 27, 2025 Nov 27, 2024 93%

Will the Lebanese parliament elect a president in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 27, 2024 12:23AM UTC
(27 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Forecast Window Forecast Expiration Current Consensus
Yes 6% Oct 27, 2024 to Apr 27, 2025 Jan 27, 2025 4%
No 94% Oct 27, 2024 to Apr 27, 2025 Jan 27, 2025 96%

Will Iran eliminate its stockpile of uranium enriched up to 60% by 31 December 2024, according to the IAEA?

Forecast Count:
16 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 30, 2024 08:23AM UTC
(23 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes, the stockpile will be reduced by 100% to 0 kg 0% 0%
No, the stockpile will be reduced by 50% or more (>0 kg - 61.8 kg) 0% 0%
No, the stockpile will be reduced by less than 50% (>61.8 kg - 123.6 kg) 0% 1%
No, the stockpile will increase (>123.6 kg) 100% 99%

Will Russia invade Estonia, Latvia, and/or Lithuania before 1 April 2027?

Forecast Count:
7 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 30, 2024 08:26AM UTC
(23 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Estonia 1% 2%
Latvia 1% 1%
Lithuania 1% 2%
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