RAND Forecasting Initiative

Will Israel and Saudi Arabia publicly acknowledge that they are resuming the normalization process in the next six months?

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 09, 2024 02:26AM UTC
(28 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	0%	Oct 9, 2024 to Apr 9, 2025	Nov 9, 2024	1%	-1%	+0%
No	100%	Oct 9, 2024 to Apr 9, 2025	Nov 9, 2024	99%	+1%	+0%

By 31 December 2024, will Microsoft announce that its AI Research Lab in China is closing or being relocated?

Forecast Count:
13 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Dec 30, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 09, 2024 02:34AM UTC
(28 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	3%	5%	-2%	+0%
No	97%	95%	+2%	+0%

Will Ali Khamenei flee Iran or cease to be Supreme Leader in the next year?

Forecast Count:
9 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(5 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 09, 2024 02:39AM UTC
(28 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	10%	Oct 9, 2024 to Oct 9, 2025	Jan 9, 2025	8%	+2%	+0%
No	90%	Oct 9, 2024 to Oct 9, 2025	Jan 9, 2025	92%	-2%	+0%

Before 1 January 2025, will Iran announce that it will leave the JCPOA ("Iran nuclear deal")?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 09, 2024 02:45AM UTC
(28 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	1%	1%	+0%	+0%
No	99%	99%	+0%	+0%

Will Iran agree to limit uranium enrichment to 5% or less in the next 6 months?

Forecast Count:
17 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 17, 2024 06:57AM UTC
(20 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	0%	Oct 17, 2024 to Apr 17, 2025	Jan 17, 2025	0%	+0%	+0%

Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test within the next six months?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 17, 2024 07:06AM UTC
(20 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	20%	Oct 17, 2024 to Apr 17, 2025	Nov 17, 2024	18%	+2%	-2%
No	80%	Oct 17, 2024 to Apr 17, 2025	Nov 17, 2024	82%	-2%	+2%

In the next 18 months, will a Russian government cyber attack occur against energy or transportation infrastructure within a NATO country that produces a kinetic effect, causing physical damage or human casualties?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 17, 2024 07:14AM UTC
(19 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	7%	Oct 17, 2024 to Apr 17, 2026	Jan 17, 2025	7%	+0%	-1%
No	93%	Oct 17, 2024 to Apr 17, 2026	Jan 17, 2025	93%	+0%	+1%

Will Russia invade Moldova, Armenia, Georgia, and/or Kazakhstan before 1 April 2027?

Forecast Count:
7 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 24, 2024 09:16AM UTC
(12 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Moldova	7%	8%	-1%	+1%
Armenia	1%	2%	-1%	+0%
Georgia	3%	4%	-1%	+1%
Kazakhstan	1%	2%	-1%	+0%

Will Russia initiate a major ground offensive to attack the following Ukrainian cities before 31 December 2024?

Forecast Count:
7 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 24, 2024 09:17AM UTC
(12 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Kharkiv	2%	4%	-2%	+0%
Kyiv	0%	1%	-1%	+0%
Odesa	0%	3%	-3%	+0%

Will Nicolás Maduro be president of Venezuela on 11 January 2025?

Forecast Count:
9 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 11, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 24, 2024 09:19AM UTC
(12 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	99%	97%	+2%	+0%
No	1%	3%	-2%	+0%

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