RAND Forecasting Initiative

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 29, 2024 10:45PM UTC
(1 day ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	6%	Sep 29, 2024 to Sep 29, 2025	Dec 29, 2024	8%	-2%	+2%
No	94%	Sep 29, 2024 to Sep 29, 2025	Dec 29, 2024	92%	+2%	-2%

Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(9 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 29, 2024 10:48PM UTC
(1 day ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	0%	2%	-2%	+0%
No	100%	99%	+2%	+0%

Forecast Count:
7 Forecasts

Question Ends:
May 03, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 29, 2024 10:49PM UTC
(1 day ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	9%	11%	-2%	+0%
No	91%	89%	+2%	+0%

Forecast Count:
11 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Sep 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(11 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 30, 2024 03:42PM UTC
(8 hours ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	90%	Sep 30, 2024 to Mar 30, 2025	Oct 30, 2024	84%	+6%	+3%
No	10%	Sep 30, 2024 to Mar 30, 2025	Oct 30, 2024	16%	-6%	-3%

Forecast Count:
11 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Sep 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(11 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 30, 2024 03:43PM UTC
(8 hours ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	93%	Sep 30, 2024 to Sep 30, 2025	Oct 30, 2024	87%	+6%	+4%
No	7%	Sep 30, 2024 to Sep 30, 2025	Oct 30, 2024	13%	-6%	-4%

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