The enactment of the CHIPS and Science Act gave the impetus for reshoring semiconductor production in US over the medium and long term. ASML equipment are long lead items and need to be ordered now if projected operating dates for new fabs are to be met.
0.04674
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5
Forecasts
0
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Most Active Topics:
Microelectronics,
Manufacturing
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
Less than 5%
39%
More than or equal to 5% but less than 10%
51%
Between 10% and 15%, inclusive
10%
More than 15%
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
A very severe recession completely kills semiconductor demand, and U.S. fab plans are delayed or cancelled
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New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
Yes
Why do you think you're right?
AI, in most use cases, is dramatically over hyped.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
An actually useful general AI is created
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
40%
Less than 5
40%
Between 5 and 11, inclusive
10%
Between 12 and 17, inclusive
10%
More than or equal to 18
Why do you think you're right?
The 17 states which follow CARB emissions regulations usually adopt those standards
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Advanced Clean Car II is a major change from the more incremental standards of the past, and could result in slower adoption
Files
New Badge
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
10%
Yes
Short of a complete rollback of Russian forces from all areas of Ukraine occupied since 2014, the use of nuclear weapon resulting in military retaliation from the West, or a complete economic collapse, V.V. Putin's institutional inertia along with the lack of a clear successor will allow him to hold on to power in the near term
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Why do you think you're right?
The test or use of a nuclear weapon will result in, at best, Russia becoming a total pariah state, even more so than North Korea. At worst, it will result in a direct confrontation with NATO. Additionally, the state of the tactical nuclear stockpile might be so poor that the device may malfunction, calling into question the reliability of the Strategic Rocket Forces stockpile.
Why might you be wrong?