I think it will perceive Ukraine as a risk
3.468534
Relative Brier Score
14
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 29 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 18 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
Less than or equal to 9%
31%
Between 10% and 19%, inclusive
60%
Between 20% and 29%, inclusive
9%
Between 30% and 39%, inclusive
0%
More than or equal to 40%
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
35%
(+14%)
Yes
Sep 9, 2024 to Sep 9, 2025
65%
(-14%)
No
Sep 9, 2024 to Sep 9, 2025
I think Iran has become increasingly Hostile
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Apr 28, 2024 06:35PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
21%
Yes
Jan 28, 2024 to Jan 28, 2025
79%
No
Jan 28, 2024 to Jan 28, 2025
I think that it is entirely possible as Iran has been provoking war in certain areas, but I do not know if it will ever be an official declared war
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
7%
Yes
93%
No
I do not think there is a high chance of this happening by the end of 2023 because that would require the platforms to create lots of new features.
Files
I think I may be right because the America semiconductor industry is very strong