19th
Accuracy Rank

ealandolt

About:
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1.409319

Relative Brier Score

6

Forecasts

0

Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
 

Past Week Past Month Past Year This Season All Time
Forecasts 0 1 6 5 25
Comments 0 1 5 4 21
Questions Forecasted 0 1 5 4 21
Upvotes on Comments By This User 0 0 0 0 1
 Definitions
New Badge
ealandolt
earned a new badge:

Active Forecaster

New Prediction
ealandolt
made their 1st forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
10%
Yes
Nov 4, 2024 to Nov 4, 2025
90%
No
Nov 4, 2024 to Nov 4, 2025
Why do you think you're right?

Given the investment, magnitude, and variety of LLM's developed by US companies there is little evidence to suggest that China would be able to develop an LLM in a quicker manner.

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Why might you be wrong?

China might place significant investment into their development of technology and LLM's

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New Prediction
ealandolt
made their 2nd forecast (view all):
This forecast expired on Nov 2, 2024 04:09PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1% (0%)
Yes
Oct 2, 2024 to Apr 2, 2025
99% (0%)
No
Oct 2, 2024 to Apr 2, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
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New Badge
ealandolt
earned a new badge:

Active Forecaster

New Prediction
Why do you think you're right?

The Chinese continue in a pursuit of global advancement through strategically establishing bases in countries which they can develop. Africa serves as a prime location for their GDP to be put to use.

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Why might you be wrong?
China might focus on a more development in Asia before moving to another continent.
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New Badge
ealandolt
earned a new badge:

Top Forecaster - Sep 2024

Earned for being in the Top 10% of the leaderboard in a month.
New Badge
ealandolt
earned a new badge:

Active Forecaster

New Prediction
ealandolt
made their 1st forecast (view all):
This forecast expired on Oct 5, 2024 06:31PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
54%
Yes
Sep 5, 2024 to Mar 5, 2025
46%
No
Sep 5, 2024 to Mar 5, 2025
Why do you think you're right?

Africa has a long history of different coup's and current diplomatic relations and longstanding power holders are experiencing new social voices which they are increasingly unable to silence. The nature of a large election year in many countries around the world creates a more volatile political state.

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Why might you be wrong?

Power hungry leaders in Africa may use tactics to silence their critics and create scenarios in which the individuals are unable to successfully execute a coup.

Files
New Badge
ealandolt
earned a new badge:

Team Lead

Earned for being a Team Lead for a group of 10+ forecasters on INFER.
New Badge
ealandolt
earned a new badge:

Top Forecaster - Feb 2024

Earned for being in the Top 10% of the leaderboard in a month.
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