Confirmed previous forecast
1.102021
Relative Brier Score
25
Forecasts
1
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 1 | 6 | 5 | 25 |
| Comments | 0 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 21 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 21 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Definitions | |||||
Most Active Topics:
Future Bowl,
Iran Nuclear Program,
Mission: AI Advancement,
Mission: Diplomacy,
Iran-VNSAs
New Prediction
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Nov 2, 2024 04:09PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1%
(0%)
Yes
Oct 2, 2024 to Apr 2, 2025
99%
(0%)
No
Oct 2, 2024 to Apr 2, 2025
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
46%
Yes
54%
No
Why do you think you're right?
The Chinese continue in a pursuit of global advancement through strategically establishing bases in countries which they can develop. Africa serves as a prime location for their GDP to be put to use.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
China might focus on a more development in Asia before moving to another continent.
Files
New Badge
Top Forecaster - Sep 2024
Earned for being in the Top 10% of the leaderboard in a month.
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Oct 5, 2024 06:31PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
54%
Yes
Sep 5, 2024 to Mar 5, 2025
46%
No
Sep 5, 2024 to Mar 5, 2025
Why do you think you're right?
Africa has a long history of different coup's and current diplomatic relations and longstanding power holders are experiencing new social voices which they are increasingly unable to silence. The nature of a large election year in many countries around the world creates a more volatile political state.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Power hungry leaders in Africa may use tactics to silence their critics and create scenarios in which the individuals are unable to successfully execute a coup.
Files
New Badge
Team Lead
Earned for being a Team Lead for a group of 10+ forecasters on INFER.
New Badge
Top Forecaster - Feb 2024
Earned for being in the Top 10% of the leaderboard in a month.
Why do you think you're right?
Given the investment, magnitude, and variety of LLM's developed by US companies there is little evidence to suggest that China would be able to develop an LLM in a quicker manner.
Why might you be wrong?
China might place significant investment into their development of technology and LLM's