A new blog post from RAND highlights how their researchers are using crowdsourced forecasting to augment traditional RAND expertise and analysis in their assessment of the potential that Israel may declare war on Hezbollah.

INFER forecasters and experts weigh in on questions related to the Israel-Hamas war, including the chance of a ceasefire in Gaza, the likelihood of Saudi Arabia normalizing relations with Israel, of Iran and Israel going to war, and more. 

Does the JCPOA—or something like it—have a future? Forecasters at INFER have been tackling a series of questions related to the deal and to Iran’s nuclear ambitions. They’ve forecasted the likelihood of Iran leaving the JCPOA, as well as of other participants enacting “snapback” sanctions.

Are we entering an era of even more rampant misinformation with the rise of AI? That was the focus of a recent talk supported by INFER as part of the Phoenix Challenge, a seminar series for senior officials in governments, think tanks and other policy experts. See how the INFER crowd forecasts on this topic compared with the experts.

All spring, the world waited for Ukraine’s counter-offensive against Russia to begin. Now that it is under way, policymakers around the world are closely monitoring its prospects. Forecasters at INFER are tracking the conflict, too, and predicting the amount of territory each side will hold by the end of the year. 

The next generation of OpenAI’s technology isn't likely to arrive this year, according to INFER forecasters as well as analysts tracking AI. In the meantime, though, OpenAI likely has other priorities.

Inflation has been surging in Egypt since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, and it shows little sign of abating, according to both experts and INFER forecasters. In fact, it’s probable that Egypt’s inflation problem will get worse.

The world will need to ramp up its use of biofuels in order to decarbonize transportation, according to the International Energy Agency.  But, will that happen? What will contribute to growth in this sector? See what forecasters on INFER are saying about this topic across a range of questions that speak to both biofuels’ short- and long-term potential. 

Last fall, the U.S. announced new export controls preventing the sale of certain advanced chips to China—along with the software and machinery required to make them. This is intended to maximize U.S. technological advantage over China. But will the controls work, and will U.S. allies join the effort?