RFI has selected six Pro Forecasters as RFI Adjuncts within RAND's Defense and Political Science Department. As adjuncts, this team of experienced forecasters will be collaborating with researchers across RAND to build up the organization's internal forecasting capabilities.

We are pleased to share our Best of 2024, a list recognizing forecasters who consistently raised the bar for accuracy and engagement this past season. 

We're proud to share the progress that the RAND Forecasting Initiative has made in setting the groundwork for integrating crowd perspectives with expert analysis to aid in high-stakes policy decisions.

We spoke to some of the forecasters who ranked in the top 20% of the 2023 leaderboard about how they approached the forecasting process, and what techniques they believe made their performance stand out during the season.

We talked with Pro Forecasters Geoff Odlum and Trent Hesslink about their experiences in forecasting, and the impact of crowd forecasting for governments and national security. 

We're pleased to announce that INFER is now the RAND Forecasting Initiative (RFI). 

INFER is pleased to share the Best of 2023 list, celebrating our most accurate and engaged forecasters from last season.

We are concluding INFER’s second year of crowd forecasting following a year rife with uncertainty for policymakers. INFER’s community of forecasters parsed complex issues to make sense of critical events that will shape the future for years to come.

A recap of a special forecasting event INFER hosted about the future of AI, attended by select INFER forecasters and nearly two dozen forecasting enthusiasts who work at Google, joining in a personal capacity.

All spring, the world waited for Ukraine’s counter-offensive against Russia to begin. Now that it is under way, policymakers around the world are closely monitoring its prospects. Forecasters at INFER are tracking the conflict, too, and predicting the amount of territory each side will hold by the end of the year. 

Last fall, INFER introduced a new Team Lead opportunity for forecasters who were interested in getting others in their community involved in crowd forecasting. Team Leads were tasked with recruiting and leading a team of forecasters in a six-month forecasting tournament that ended in April.

Our forecasters have been asking for a mobile app – and we are excited to share that it is now available for INFER. You will now be able to submit forecasts on critical questions to support INFER’s government stakeholders directly from our native app on a phone or tablet. 

INFER is pleased to announce a collaboration with Cosmic Bazaar, the crowdsourced forecasting program run by the UK’s Professional Head of Intelligence Assessment (PHIA).

See who made the Best of 2022 and help us recognize their outstanding contributions.

As the inaugural season of INFER comes to an end, we wanted to take a moment to reflect on some of our accomplishments as a community, our lessons learned, and also give you a glimpse of new initiatives we’re excited to share with you in 2023. 

INFER is pleased to announce that the Pro Forecaster Program will continue into the 2023 season. Up to 100 Pro Forecasters (“Pros”) are being selected for the program, which includes monthly payment for dedicated forecasting and exclusive training and events.

What did EA student groups from universities across the globe learn during INFER's first forecasting tournament? The winning team, many of whom were first-time forecasters, share their thoughts!

Meet Dawna Coutant and Ryan Beck, our community mentors!  You may have seen notes and comments on our discussion boards from these two Pro Forecasters aimed to help you in your own forecasting. Get to know them, how they approach forecasting, and their advice for honing your skills. 

In the first "By the Numbers," we explore the number of forecasts, how accurate forecasters were, and many other statistics about INFER forecasts during the month of April. 

INFER has launched its first tournament for effective altruism (EA) student groups. EA groups from top universities around the world are learning forecasting techniques and putting skills into practice in an attempt to be more accurate in predicting the future.

We've launched the 2022 Pro Forecaster program, comprised of 100 forecasters paid to dedicate time to forecasting, collaborating with other Pros, and attending exclusive trainings and events. Here's what's new for 2022, why INFER is investing in growing the program -- and how you can become a Pro!