RAND fellow Jordan Despanie shares insights on crowdsourced forecasting techniques and their application to technology and security policy in a new blog interview.

In this post, we explore how you can use an AI tool like ChatGPT to gain a quick understanding of a complex forecast topic as well as improve the logical support behind your rationale.

When you drop in ranking due to a single inaccurate forecast (as happens to everyone sooner or later!), what can you learn from these moments?

Crowd forecasting allows you to get signals about events before they happen. We're making it even easier to be alerted to important signals by introducing crowd forecast change alerts – which notify you of sudden shifts in the consensus forecast.

In our first blog series on cognitive biases, we dive into confirmation bias: what is it, and how can we avoid it in our forecasts?

Making your first forecast? This guide will provide steps and example prompts that you can use to approach any forecast question for the first time.

In this edition of "Thoughts from a Pro," we caught up with a Pro who submitted the recently-closed PHEIC question, Alex Demarsh!

Why were we, as a crowd, trending in the wrong direction on this question? Granted, with a 30% chance of occurring, it’s going to happen three out of ten times, but why wasn’t our forecast higher? 

Meet Dawna Coutant and Ryan Beck, our community mentors!  You may have seen notes and comments on our discussion boards from these two Pro Forecasters aimed to help you in your own forecasting. Get to know them, how they approach forecasting, and their advice for honing your skills. 

Fern answers a question concerning the ambiguity of language and explains why INFER uses numerical probabilities instead.

A new advice column in which forecasters write in to "Fern" for help with anything forecasting related. Today's forecaster writes in: I'm not an expert on AI or microelectronics, can I still forecast on these questions?