Absent significant policy pressure from the US inertia will keep the Lab open. Moving away from talent and the snub to China would make it a difficult decision.
1.103708
Relative Brier Score
3
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
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Mission: Diplomacy
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New Prediction
Probability
Answer
3%
Yes
97%
No
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
If the president or other US legislators pushed for policy change around AI and China specifically I would expect to see lab and personnel movement in response.
Files
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New Prediction
Probability
Answer
3%
Yes
He’s got the power. Wartime leaders seldom are deposed or replaced.
Files
Why do you think you're right?
I think Israel is too busy with the other war to mess around in Iran
Why might you be wrong?
Unexpected escalation of war in the region, proven support of Hesbulla by Iran,