It has happened before and Iran is engaging in increasingly risky geopolitical games
-0.01459
Relative Brier Score
3
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
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Mission: Diplomacy
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Probability
Answer
80%
Yes
20%
No
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New Prediction
Probability
Answer
10%
Yes
Guaranteed to be president at that time barring some low likelihood outside events, like rebellion or assassination. May 1 is too soon for these to be likely
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The US is increasingly clamping down, and tech layoffs are a thing. It's increasingly difficult to get required hardware into china.