Confirmed previous forecast
0.753357
Relative Brier Score
7
Forecasts
1
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Definitions | |||||
Most Active Topics:
Mission: AI Advancement,
Decoding Disinformation,
Iran Nuclear Program,
Mission: Diplomacy
New Prediction
Before 1 January 2025, will Iran announce that it will leave the JCPOA ("Iran nuclear deal")?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
21%
(0%)
Yes
79%
(0%)
No
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
4%
Yes
96%
No
Images and videos posted on social media serve as a quick and often used source for these news channels.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
20%
Yes
80%
No
Risk of accidentally tagging human content is too high. Additionally detection of AI generated content has proven notoriously hard.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
56%
Yes
44%
No
The technology does not seem as advanced yet, however developments seem to be hard to predict.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
90%
Yes
There is no apparent oppositional power that could replace him.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
21%
Yes
79%
No
It's more probable that they will subvert the deal but not publicly leave it due to economic interests.
Files
New Badge
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
3%
Yes
Sam Altman stated publicly that GPT-5 is far from being ready.
Files