Confirmed previous forecast
3.030966
Relative Brier Score
43
Forecasts
3
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 43 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| Definitions | |||||
Most Active Topics:
Mission: Diplomacy,
Semiconductor Supply Chain,
Decoding Disinformation,
Iran Nuclear Program,
Mission: AI Advancement
New Prediction
Before 1 January 2025, will Iran announce that it will leave the JCPOA ("Iran nuclear deal")?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
2%
(0%)
Yes
98%
(0%)
No
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
79%
(0%)
Yes
21%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
In collaboration with the UK Professional Head of Intelligence Assessment
Probability
Answer
8%
(0%)
Yes
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
9%
(0%)
Yes
91%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
3%
(0%)
S-400 or S-500 missile system
4%
(0%)
Su-35 fighter jets
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
8%
(0%)
Yes
92%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
6%
(0%)
Yes
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
6%
(0%)
Yes
94%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
21%
(0%)
Yes
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
4%
(0%)
Yes
Confirmed previous forecast
Files