JonathanMann

Lowering again on Moldova. After losing influence in Syria, in large part due to focus on Ukraine, I expect Russia will be less likely to invade additional countries.

I don't think this is very likely. There will probably be reasonably good non-invasive alternatives and the approval process for this looks like a minefield from my perspective.  Furthermore, I somewhat doubt the public will be banging down the door to request this approval.

I somewhat expect the technology will be available or be close by the end of 2030, but I'm skeptical that there will be a lot of pressure to fast track this. Based on the strict resolution criteria, I'll start out at a little higher than 1/4.

This seems like a promising approach. I expect AI will be able to identify good candidates from the pool of existing approved drugs for certain conditions soon. Drugs that previously met the standard for safe human use could be fast tracked if they appear to be promising. I expect this will happen for some drugs eventually, but I'm not sure about the timelines and whether anything from this domain will apply before the end of 2030. My gut tells me 70% - 75%, but I'm adding uncertainty.

With little time left, both seem unlikely, but I'd put just a little more mass on the jets if anything is going to happen. It seems sanctions on Russia will continue to make production difficult, so I'll give 3% for the jets and 1% for the missile system.

I haven't collected data to run a simulation for a while, but eyeing it, it could easily be Apple, NVIDIA, or Microsoft. Right now, I'd give Apple a little more than a third, NVIDIA about a third and Microsoft less than a third with a small hold out for something surprising happening. 

Confirmed previous forecast

Increasing slightly as I think I was previously too low given my uncertainty. In the absence of news, I expect to decrease by about 3% per month until the question expires.