JonathanMann

Jonathan Mann
About:
Show more

No Scores Yet

Relative Brier Score
13313002468101214
Questions Forecasted

19

Forecasts

3

Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
LessMoreNovDecJanFebSuMoTuWeThFrSa
 

Past Week Past Month Past Year This Season All Time
Forecasts 7 13 199 19 762
Comments 6 12 30 17 191
Questions Forecasted 7 13 40 13 104
Upvotes on Comments By This User 0 1 34 3 151
 Definitions
New Prediction
Why do you think you're right?

I expect that even if this can be shown to be safe and effective, it would take a long time for the FDA to catch up. In spite my of my anticipated  high level of computational and algorithmic progress over the next decade, I still expect that "in silico" methods will not be practical for the level of safety that should be required. I think I'm around 27% for that. Supposing that we do find ourselves in that universe however, what are the chances the FDA updates procedures? I'd guess around 30%, so that leaves us with around 8%. There is still the issue of whether a company actually makes the application given these conditions, but I put that in the mid to high 90s, so it doesn't meaningfully impact my forecast since I can only select to the nearest percentage point.

Files
Why might you be wrong?
Maybe AI progress will change things in unanticipated ways. Maybe we'll find ourselves with new institutions.
Files
New Prediction
Why do you think you're right?

I'll update again after the next earnings release on the 26th. Look to my first forecast as I'm following the same strategy. A lot depends on whether the market has a bull run or whether it stalls.

Files
Why might you be wrong?

Maybe the crowd knows something I don't and their "inside view" contrary to the MC simulation has some merit.  Time is also running down, so if NVDA doesn't start making up ground soon it will get harder and harder.

Files
New Prediction
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
JonathanMann
made their 1st forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
8%
Implantable Devices
76%
Environmental Sensors
15%
Personal Electronics
1%
Advanced Computing
Why do you think you're right?

I'm pretty skeptical of something being used for advanced computing, but I'll leave one percent for the possibility of some specialized application.  For personal and implanted devices, I could maybe imagine biological elements, but it seems like these would probably be easier to do with non-biological systems. I'll say the same thing for environmental sensors, but if someone has ever used a camera with the proverbial canary in the coal mine or something similar then this would already resolve as true (along with similar situations for animal testing), so I'll interpret it to mean something along the lines of cellular organisms that directly interact with an electronic system and defining the "device" to be self-contained so that the biological element must exist within the device. This seems the most likely, but I'd still put it down to around 50/50 as there will probably be easier mechanisms to employ.  

Files
Why might you be wrong?

A lot of this will probably come down to how the questions are interpreted. Also, 10 years is a long time for forecasting. This question is currently requiring a sum of 100% for me, so in order to submit, I needed to apply additional weight on the sensor category.

Files
New Prediction
Why do you think you're right?

As per my previous forecast, I'm lowering as time passes in the absence of news related to this. I ran a quick search of news that might be related to this and did not find any recent updates.

Files
Why might you be wrong?
Maybe there is information out there I'm not finding or maybe there are "secret" negotiations happening, but I can't even find recent rumors right now.
Files
New Prediction
Why do you think you're right?

There are strong international taboos against all of these weapons, particularly with nuclear. I wouldn't expect a country to resort to any of these except for in fairly dire situations. To me, chemical weapons seem the most likely to be used since there are many countries that have them and the consequences seem the easiest to avoid since it seems possible that they could go undetected or unconfirmed. On the other hand, that would cut against the resolution criteria. So I would guess a little under 50% (say 45%) for chemical weapon usage with about an 80% chance of detection to arrive at 38%. Biological weapons seem hard to control (and could end up hurting the initiating party), but maybe AI could help with crafting targeted bio weapons. Again, it seems plausible that this could go undetected, but I would expect something like a 90% chance that it would be. At this point, I'm stacking layers and layers of unlikely scenarios to lead to the usage of any of the non-chemical weapons. For nuclear, I would estimate the background risk to be around 1/150 a year (from prior analysis), but with Russia and Ukraine being at war, I'll increase my estimate to arrive at 4%. Radiological weapons seem the most unlikely, since, from what I've read, they don't seem particularly effective, but would likely incur consequences similar to using a nuclear weapon. With both radiological and nuclear weapons use, I expect both would be detected if used, so I'm not applying any detection reduction.

Files
Why might you be wrong?

I'm basing most of these estimates on the world as I know it. If something disrupts the international order enough, everything might go out the window.

Files
New Prediction
Why do you think you're right?

I somewhat expect this to be possible, but, as others have noted, suspect there will be better routes to accomplishing the desired real-world outcomes and am therefore putting a relatively low estimate.

Files
Why might you be wrong?
I could imagine this happening as a capability demonstration or as part of research.
Files
New Badge
JonathanMann
earned a new badge:

Active Forecaster

New Prediction
Why do you think you're right?

My read is that the war in Ukraine has been tipping in Russia's favor recently and that Ukraine is struggling with its new recruits. It seems now maybe Trump will try to extract concessions from Ukraine in terms of rare earth minerals in exchange for aid. All of this seems like it helps Putin's prospects. From my perspective, uncertainty around the war was the main threat to Putin's power, so with these developments along with the passage of time, I'll lower by a percentage point.

Files
Why might you be wrong?

Maybe another country will try to intervene to help Ukraine. Also, there is always uncertainty in war and the balance can shift quickly. 

Files
New Badge
JonathanMann
earned a new badge:

Star Commenter - Jan 2025

Earned for making 5+ comments in a month (rationales not included).
Files
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username