JonathanMann

There are a lot of low-probability events that could cause an end to Maduro's presidency (health, assassination, internal revolt), but adding them all up, I'm barely over half a percent. As time passes, I'll probably pass the 99.5% threshold at some point next month and round this up to 100%. 

Lowering with time. In order for construction to begin, there will need to be negotiations which could take some time. If anyone here knows how long negotiations usually take and how long it is from when they become public to when base construction begins that would be helpful. Meanwhile, in the absence of information (a quick search revealed nothing new from my last forecast), so I'm lowering.

Remaining at 0% for all of these countries due to the lack of time. Even if there were a desire on the part of any of these countries to begin this process, they would likely wait for the next administration to begin negotiations.

As per other comments, NVDA is now on top, but it is highly correlated with other top companies and also volatile. As per my first forecast, if the market does relatively well, I expect NVDA to outpace its competitors due to it's higher beta, but in a down market, I expect it to fair poorly. Another concern is that there are rumors that AI companies are hitting a wall in terms of scaling. I do not expect this to be a permanent situation, but it could cool the demand for NVDA products within the time table of this question. Finally, NVDA is highly dependent on TSMC. If there is a credible threat of a disruption there (even if it doesn't materialize within the time table of this question), it could have ripple effects that could impact NVDA (although it seems most have not yet put these pieces together yet).

Lowering with time. It seems like Israel and Hamas are still too far apart to have a pause. Also, as per @VidurKapur 's comment, at this point, it seems like the US will not be a factor until after the inauguration.

Updating on the recently released September data. Under normal circumstances, I would expect the final bin to be almost 100%, but adding in the outside chance there's some kind of data change or revision, I'll leave 1% for now.

As others have pointed out, it seems like a better bet for Putin would be to wait for the next administration before attempting an expanded campaigns. In any event, it seems there isn't enough time left to mount a major offensive and I would expect to see a buildup before the event.

Confirmed previous forecast

Lowering with time.

Confirmed previous forecast