JonathanMann

Thanks so much. Having personally viewed the famous Irpin bridge and lived in both St. Petersburg and Buccha which was an extremely pleasant place to live in 2021 before the general war, I can tell you that Russians Germans Poles and their predecessors have waged war over what is now recognized as Ukraine for at least 400 years. The Poland which was partitioned out of existence  3x by Catherine the Great constituted most of today's  Western Ukraine.

Then Poland was reinvented at Versailles in 1919 out of the same land. And Trotsky was at the gates of Warsaw  later that year. Next the Poles and their Ukrainian allies captured Kiev in 1921  Prompting the inauguration of the  Soviet Union with the current Ukraine as a supposedly autonomous  Socialist Soviet Rwpublic.

After splitting this land with Hitler, Stalin got all of it at Yalra.  He forced FDR to move Poland 300 miles  west.

Crimea was never part of Ukraine until Khruschev added it to the SSR in 1952 in recognition of its sacrifices in the Holidmor and Nazis.

Common theme outside powers including Germsny  the US and Russia have fought and will fight  over  this land to the last dead Ukrainian. Over 20 millions Ukrainians killed just in the lsst 100 years.  Over 20 millon Ukrainians killed displaced in the last 2 years.

Hence the outside view is general war every 20 years 

But one must understand thst biology and genetics and environmental feedback loop that for 400 years  created a culture of absolutism becsuse of fear since Ivan  the Terrible of instability.

That same loop made Ukrainian resist absolute authority in religion and politics for 400 years.

https://www.latimes.com/opinion/op-ed/la-oe-sapolsky-culture-and-behavior-20140803-story.html

The inside story is that time 400 years and the repeated real traumas of war and genocide have created 2 distinct Russian and Ukrainian cultures  which actually render a common psychological result.

Ukrainians and  Russians actually  disgusted by each other 

As a result Russians hate Ukrainians.and vice versa.  Almost every Russian including post grads and security oligarchs like Lavrov think Ukrainians are ungrateful uncooperative fraudsters who don't really exist as a nation. And this attitude exists among 80 percent of all Russians.

85 percent of Ukrainians think Putin is like Hitler and Russians are all slaves and accessories to genocide

https://www.thetimes.com/article/9da07f48-ec3d-4b1c-9d8f-9d5eee1599bf?shareToken=8d5a5416378c7cbdf770d35a8fee8ba8

Children that is the wedge issue Putin cannot concede. He claims Russia rescued 750000 and most if not all Russians believe him. Prisoners. Putin just convicted and incarcerated the only survivors of the Asov Battalion as terrorists.

And the Ukrainians believe Putin and most Russians steal children and violate Geneva. For what it's worth so does the ICC. So do I. Yet most Russians deny events like Buccha ever happened.

So there may be some short symbolic sham cease fire by Putin just to satisfy Trump but only because the campaign season is over after October.

Putin will not agree to a cease fire until Ukraine has sufficient precise mass force. Until US and EU arm Ukraine enough to  overcome Russia 4 to 1  advantage and start pushing Putin back and protect Ukrainian cities, this version of the war may last until Putin dies or loses power.

Far more likely is no agreement and lower intensity attacks on the LOC and Ukrainian cities and a frozen conflict.

Putin and Lavriv protest that Russian does not want a frozen conflict. They both protest too much.

As I rate anything other than a 2025  Gaza type cease fire extremely unlikely like 85 percent, it's impossible to predict a contingent low frequency result.

So i agree with you but decline to forecast.