JonathanMann

Lowering with time.

Lowering with time and with the expectation that a Trump presidency will be better for Putin than a Harris or Biden presidency.

Lowering after considering @cmeinel 's recent forecast. I'm less confident than Carolyn, but do think the update is directionally accurate and expect that China is likely to be focused on other priorities for next few years.

I agree with @404_NOT_FOUND 's recent comment that a Trump presidency makes an end to the war in Ukraine more likely and consequently makes all of these countries potentially more likely to be invaded. Just the same, I was going to reduce all of these with time, but I'll leave them where they are with the exception of Moldova which I expect is the most likely candidate for invasion within the time frame of this question. 

Upon consideration, my previous forecast was too high. While this is conceivable there are many steps between where we are today and an actual strike against US forces. 

I'll remain at 2% for now, but may begin slowly increasing in the new year depending on the actions taken by the new administration. I expect I'll remain relatively low unless this becomes a higher priority.

I'm probably close to 99.5% on this, but still just a bit below. There are people who would seek to depose Maduro, but I'd estimate the chances to be around maybe 0.3% per month including the chances that he dies unexpectedly. I'll probably go to 100% in mid-November.