32nd
Accuracy Rank

JonathanMann

Jonathan Mann
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-0.401726

Relative Brier Score

250

Forecasts

57

Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
 

Past Week Past Month Past Year This Season All Time
Forecasts 6 18 199 165 705
Comments 0 0 13 11 68
Questions Forecasted 6 16 43 32 96
Upvotes on Comments By This User 0 2 29 23 139
 Definitions
New Prediction
JonathanMann
made their 8th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
99% (0%)
Yes
1% (0%)
No

I'm probably close to 99.5% on this, but still just a bit below. There are people who would seek to depose Maduro, but I'd estimate the chances to be around maybe 0.3% per month including the chances that he dies unexpectedly. I'll probably go to 100% in mid-November.  

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New Prediction
Confirmed previous forecast
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New Prediction

Lowering with time. My 1% a month estimate is probably an over estimate but with situations like these where there aren't a lot of directly comparable reference classes, I think it makes sense to bias toward uncertainty.

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New Badge
JonathanMann
earned a new badge:

Active Forecaster

New Prediction

Lowering with time. As others have noted, the main reason there's still a greater than 0.5% chance is that the situation with Israel could potentially escalate and lead to something unexpected happening. If nothing significant changes by early December, I'll probably lower to 0%.

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New Prediction

Lowering with time. 

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New Prediction
JonathanMann
made their 5th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
0% (0%)
Kuwait
0% (0%)
Oman
0% (0%)
Qatar
0% (0%)
Saudi Arabia
0% (0%)
Tunisia
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction

As per my first forecast on this question, NVDA and AAPL are highly correlated (and both are up today). As I said previously "The Fed could lower interest rates or some other event could trigger a market surge where NVDA with its higher beta (1.75) rapidly outpaces MSFT (1.17) and AAPL (1.18) " and as with my last forecast, this does seem reasonable. I'll continue to remain close to my original model, but also lower slightly again due to time and due to the fact that NVDA still has a lot of ground it would need to make up.

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New Prediction

lowering with time and with the death of Sinwar. I agree with recent comments by @DippySkippy . It isn't clear if there is even a coherent party that Israel could negotiate with at the moment. It will take time for that to materialize (if it even does). There is a possibility that Hamas will fracture into subgroups with the military wing having irreconcilable differences with the political wing. I'm not suggesting this is likely to happen, but without a more detailed understanding of the situation, it seems like the sort of thing that could happen. In any event, a pause seems even more unlikely than before.

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New Prediction

Lowering again based on @michal_dubrawski 's recent research and the lack of time for more planets to be added. I still have a good bit of uneasiness about this, but I'll probably go lower after I have more time to reflect.

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