JonathanMann

I'm probably close to 99.5% on this, but still just a bit below. There are people who would seek to depose Maduro, but I'd estimate the chances to be around maybe 0.3% per month including the chances that he dies unexpectedly. I'll probably go to 100% in mid-November.  

Lowering with time. My 1% a month estimate is probably an over estimate but with situations like these where there aren't a lot of directly comparable reference classes, I think it makes sense to bias toward uncertainty.

Lowering with time. As others have noted, the main reason there's still a greater than 0.5% chance is that the situation with Israel could potentially escalate and lead to something unexpected happening. If nothing significant changes by early December, I'll probably lower to 0%.

Lowering with time. 

As per my first forecast on this question, NVDA and AAPL are highly correlated (and both are up today). As I said previously "The Fed could lower interest rates or some other event could trigger a market surge where NVDA with its higher beta (1.75) rapidly outpaces MSFT (1.17) and AAPL (1.18) " and as with my last forecast, this does seem reasonable. I'll continue to remain close to my original model, but also lower slightly again due to time and due to the fact that NVDA still has a lot of ground it would need to make up.

lowering with time and with the death of Sinwar. I agree with recent comments by @DippySkippy . It isn't clear if there is even a coherent party that Israel could negotiate with at the moment. It will take time for that to materialize (if it even does). There is a possibility that Hamas will fracture into subgroups with the military wing having irreconcilable differences with the political wing. I'm not suggesting this is likely to happen, but without a more detailed understanding of the situation, it seems like the sort of thing that could happen. In any event, a pause seems even more unlikely than before.

Lowering again based on @michal_dubrawski 's recent research and the lack of time for more planets to be added. I still have a good bit of uneasiness about this, but I'll probably go lower after I have more time to reflect.