Before July seems unlikely to have that big of a change
0.081437
Relative Brier Score
7
Forecasts
3
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 7 | 4 | 7 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 6 | 4 | 6 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 3 |
| Definitions | |||||
Most Active Topics:
Science & Technology,
International Diplomacy & Conflict,
Artificial Intelligence,
Russia-Ukraine War
Most Active Topics:
Mission: AI Advancement,
Decoding Disinformation,
Semiconductor Supply Chain
New Prediction
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Probability
Answer
3%
Yes
97%
No
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Probability
Answer
39%
Yes
61%
No
It is not possible for them to check if I used ChatGPT to write and then copy paste that text into a tweet, reliably. Its unlikely that they would attempt it due to the technical challenge though it is certain that they are testing it in-house.
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Probability
Answer
88%
(+7%)
Yes
12%
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Updated as progress seems reliable according to NASA published documentation
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81%
Yes
19%
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The current plans on making it to the moon seem reliable from reliable organizations.
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Probability
Answer
3%
Yes
The release of Q* and following comments on GPT-5 or something akin to that from OpenAI has sparked new interest in this topic. However while the scene moves fast and often surprisingly, there is technical as well as proprietary sense in releasing the product later, than in december 2023.
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Why do you think you're right?
While NATO and its allies are providing weapons and support to Ukraine, while limiting support to Russia, there is no immediate plan to "go in and stop Russia". At the same time, Russia is making deals with India, North Korea, African nations, and China to make up its financial and militaristic losses. According to reports from individuals on the frontline however, these are not ideal for the foreign fighters - yet do their governments care to stop the deal even if war is hell?
Why might you be wrong?
A coup from within or a sudden European or NATO operation into Russia could be in the plans, but not revealed to the public.