Confirmed previous forecast
1.214736
Relative Brier Score
30
Forecasts
2
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 30 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Definitions | |||||
Most Active Topics:
Mission: AI Advancement,
Mission: Diplomacy,
Decoding Disinformation,
Iran Nuclear Program
New Prediction
Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 May 2024?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
7%
(0%)
Yes
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Yes
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
15%
(0%)
Yes
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(-15%)
Yes
100%
(+15%)
No
This is going to evaluate tomorrow and I didn't get to update my forecast until now, very unlikely it still turns to true.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
95%
(0%)
Yes
5%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
80%
(0%)
Yes
20%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Yes
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
7%
(0%)
Yes
Confirmed previous forecast
Files