Naively guessing 20% in the next decade seems more reasonable than only 10% in the next decade. But I have zero expertise related to this.
0.176805
Relative Brier Score
39
Forecasts
9
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 39 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 25 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 |
| Definitions | |||||
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Future Bowl,
Iran Nuclear Program
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
Kuwait
2%
Oman
2%
Qatar
2%
Saudi Arabia
2%
Tunisia
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Could be anything from 0-10%, but I'm going low given base rates and the other forecaster who said 1%.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
32%
Yes
Why do you think you're right?
My long rationale I typed on my phone just got deleted when I clicked 'Submit' but I wasn't logged in.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
.
Files
No problem!
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
82%
(+50%)
Yes
Low info: Windows 10 users already have access, does that count?
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
17%
(-5%)
Yes
Skimmed some others' forecasts. Low information update.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
22%
(-5%)
Yes
Updating toward community consensus.
Files
Update based on crowd