Forecasted Questions
Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months?
Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 30, 2024 10:51PM UTC
(23 days ago)
Oct 30, 2024 10:51PM UTC
(23 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0% | Oct 30, 2024 to Apr 30, 2025 | Nov 30, 2024 | 0% | +0% | +0% |
| No | 100% | Oct 30, 2024 to Apr 30, 2025 | Nov 30, 2024 | 100% | +0% | +0% |
Which of the following territorial developments between Venezuela and Guyana will occur before 1 August 2025?
Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Aug 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Aug 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 30, 2024 10:51PM UTC
(23 days ago)
Oct 30, 2024 10:51PM UTC
(23 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Venezuela conducts a ground invasion of Guyana | 1% | 3% | -2% | +0% |
| Venezuela attacks offshore Guyanese oil wells | 1% | 5% | -4% | +0% |
| Venezuela relinquishes its claim on Essequibo | 1% | 1% | +0% | +0% |
| Guyana agrees to cede some or all of Essequibo | 1% | 1% | +0% | +0% |
Will another Chinese military base in an African country (excluding Djibouti) be under construction or established by 1 January 2027?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 30, 2024 10:52PM UTC
(23 days ago)
Oct 30, 2024 10:52PM UTC
(23 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 50% | 35% | +15% | -4% |
| No | 50% | 65% | -15% | +4% |
Will there be a successful coup d’état in Africa in the next six months?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 30, 2024 10:53PM UTC
(23 days ago)
Oct 30, 2024 10:53PM UTC
(23 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 50% | Oct 30, 2024 to Apr 30, 2025 | Nov 30, 2024 | 57% | -7% | +11% |
| No | 50% | Oct 30, 2024 to Apr 30, 2025 | Nov 30, 2024 | 43% | +7% | -11% |
Will Wagner Group or Africa Corps deploy to Togo or an additional African country before 1 January 2026?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 30, 2024 10:53PM UTC
(23 days ago)
Oct 30, 2024 10:53PM UTC
(23 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Togo | 60% | 24% | +36% | -2% |
| Any other African country with no previous Wagner or Africa Corps operations | 30% | 39% | -9% | +3% |