Forecasted Questions
Will a collaboration between Huawei and the O-RAN Alliance be announced before 1 October 2025?
Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts
5 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Oct 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Oct 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 16, 2024 09:36PM UTC
(14 days ago)
Sep 16, 2024 09:36PM UTC
(14 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 1% | 6% | -5% | -2% |
| No | 99% | 94% | +5% | +2% |
Will Israel declare war on Hezbollah in the next 12 months?
Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts
6 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Sep 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(11 months from now)
Sep 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(11 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 16, 2024 09:36PM UTC
(14 days ago)
Sep 16, 2024 09:36PM UTC
(14 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 20% | Sep 16, 2024 to Sep 16, 2025 | Oct 16, 2024 | 87% | -67% | +62% |
| No | 80% | Sep 16, 2024 to Sep 16, 2025 | Oct 16, 2024 | 13% | +67% | -62% |
Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 16, 2024 09:36PM UTC
(14 days ago)
Sep 16, 2024 09:36PM UTC
(14 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0% | Sep 16, 2024 to Mar 16, 2025 | Oct 16, 2024 | 0% | +0% | +0% |
| No | 100% | Sep 16, 2024 to Mar 16, 2025 | Oct 16, 2024 | 100% | +0% | +0% |
Which of the following territorial developments between Venezuela and Guyana will occur before 1 August 2025?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Aug 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(10 months from now)
Aug 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(10 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 16, 2024 09:36PM UTC
(14 days ago)
Sep 16, 2024 09:36PM UTC
(14 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Venezuela conducts a ground invasion of Guyana | 1% | 3% | -2% | +0% |
| Venezuela attacks offshore Guyanese oil wells | 1% | 4% | -3% | +0% |
| Venezuela relinquishes its claim on Essequibo | 1% | 1% | +0% | +0% |
| Guyana agrees to cede some or all of Essequibo | 1% | 1% | +0% | +0% |
Will another Chinese military base in an African country (excluding Djibouti) be under construction or established by 1 January 2027?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 24, 2024 09:02PM UTC
(6 days ago)
Sep 24, 2024 09:02PM UTC
(6 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 50% | 41% | +9% | -3% |
| No | 50% | 59% | -9% | +3% |
Will there be a successful coup d’état in Africa in the next six months?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 26, 2024 10:32PM UTC
(4 days ago)
Sep 26, 2024 10:32PM UTC
(4 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 50% | Sep 26, 2024 to Mar 26, 2025 | Oct 26, 2024 | 54% | -4% | +6% |
| No | 50% | Sep 26, 2024 to Mar 26, 2025 | Oct 26, 2024 | 46% | +4% | -6% |
Will Wagner Group or Africa Corps deploy to Togo or an additional African country before 1 January 2026?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 26, 2024 10:33PM UTC
(4 days ago)
Sep 26, 2024 10:33PM UTC
(4 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Togo | 60% | 33% | +27% | +3% |
| Any other African country with no previous Wagner or Africa Corps operations | 30% | 40% | -10% | +1% |