159th
Accuracy Rank

ansantillan

Andrés Santillán Reich
About:

Just graduated from university. I am currently an advisor on parliamentary diplomacy in the Mexican Senate. Interested in geopolitics mainly, however, I have growing interests in blockchain technology and new innovative techs. Trying to learn from the best.

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Forecasted Questions
Open Closed Resolved

In the next six months, will the Global Protest Tracker record an anti-government protest in Iran with 10,000 or more participants lasting at least a week?

Forecast Count:
 12 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Oct 19, 2024 04:40AM UTC
(1 month ago)
Answer Your Forecast Forecast Window Forecast Expiration Current Consensus
Yes 3% Oct 19, 2024 to Apr 19, 2025 Nov 19, 2024 7%
No 97% Oct 19, 2024 to Apr 19, 2025 Nov 19, 2024 93%

Will any listed Muslim-majority country sign an agreement establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
 12 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Oct 22, 2024 01:55AM UTC
(28 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Forecast Window Forecast Expiration Current Consensus
Yes 1% Oct 22, 2024 to Apr 22, 2025 Nov 22, 2024 1%
No 99% Oct 22, 2024 to Apr 22, 2025 Nov 22, 2024 99%

Will Iran launch missiles or conduct an airstrike against U.S. forces in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
 14 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Oct 22, 2024 01:55AM UTC
(28 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Forecast Window Forecast Expiration Current Consensus
Yes 1% Oct 22, 2024 to Apr 22, 2025 Nov 22, 2024 2%
No 99% Oct 22, 2024 to Apr 22, 2025 Nov 22, 2024 98%

Will Israel and Saudi Arabia publicly acknowledge that they are resuming the normalization process in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
 13 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Oct 22, 2024 01:59AM UTC
(28 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Forecast Window Forecast Expiration Current Consensus
Yes 2% Oct 22, 2024 to Apr 22, 2025 Nov 22, 2024 1%
No 98% Oct 22, 2024 to Apr 22, 2025 Nov 22, 2024 99%

Will Ali Khamenei flee Iran or cease to be Supreme Leader in the next year?

Forecast Count:
 9 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Apr 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(4 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Oct 22, 2024 01:59AM UTC
(28 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Forecast Window Forecast Expiration Current Consensus
Yes 3% Oct 22, 2024 to Oct 22, 2025 Jan 22, 2025 12%
No 97% Oct 22, 2024 to Oct 22, 2025 Jan 22, 2025 88%

Will the O-RAN Alliance’s specifications be integrated into 3GPP before 1 January 2027?

Forecast Count:
 2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Oct 22, 2024 02:00AM UTC
(28 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes, 3GPP will adopt and integrate O-RAN Alliance specifications 26% 33%
No, the O-RAN Alliance will continue to develop specifications independently of 3GPP 72% 64%
No, the O-RAN Alliance will stop developing specifications without being integrated into 3GPP 2% 3%

Will Russia initiate a major ground offensive to attack the following Ukrainian cities before 31 December 2024?

Forecast Count:
 9 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Oct 23, 2024 04:54AM UTC
(27 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Kharkiv 0% 3%
Kyiv 0% 1%
Odesa 0% 2%

Will a collaboration between Huawei and the O-RAN Alliance be announced before 1 October 2025?

Forecast Count:
 4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Oct 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(11 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Oct 26, 2024 04:47PM UTC
(23 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 12% 5%
No 88% 95%

Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 July 2025?

Forecast Count:
 4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jul 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Oct 26, 2024 04:47PM UTC
(23 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 1% 1%
No 99% 99%

Will Iran eliminate its stockpile of uranium enriched up to 60% by 31 December 2024, according to the IAEA?

Forecast Count:
 14 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Oct 27, 2024 03:54PM UTC
(22 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes, the stockpile will be reduced by 100% to 0 kg 0% 0%
No, the stockpile will be reduced by 50% or more (>0 kg - 61.8 kg) 0% 0%
No, the stockpile will be reduced by less than 50% (>61.8 kg - 123.6 kg) 1% 1%
No, the stockpile will increase (>123.6 kg) 99% 99%
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