159th
Accuracy Rank

ansantillan

Andrés Santillán Reich
About:

Just graduated from university. I am currently an advisor on parliamentary diplomacy in the Mexican Senate. Interested in geopolitics mainly, however, I have growing interests in blockchain technology and new innovative techs. Trying to learn from the best.

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Forecasted Questions
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Will the Lebanese parliament elect a president in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
 7 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Oct 14, 2024 12:52AM UTC
(23 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Forecast Window Forecast Expiration Current Consensus
Yes 5% Oct 14, 2024 to Apr 14, 2025 Jan 14, 2025 5%
No 95% Oct 14, 2024 to Apr 14, 2025 Jan 14, 2025 95%

Will any of the following countries recognize Israel’s statehood by 31 December 2024?

Forecast Count:
 17 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Oct 14, 2024 12:52AM UTC
(23 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Kuwait 0% 1%
Oman 1% 2%
Qatar 0% 1%
Saudi Arabia 2% 2%
Tunisia 0% 1%

Will at least five more exoplanets be found to be potentially habitable between 1 February 2024 and 31 December 2024?

Forecast Count:
 5 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Oct 14, 2024 04:11AM UTC
(23 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 5% 15%
No 95% 85%

By 31 December 2024, will Microsoft announce that its AI Research Lab in China is closing or being relocated?

Forecast Count:
 6 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Dec 30, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Oct 17, 2024 02:34AM UTC
(20 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 1% 5%
No 99% 95%

Will Russia invade Moldova, Armenia, Georgia, and/or Kazakhstan before 1 April 2027?

Forecast Count:
 6 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Oct 17, 2024 02:35AM UTC
(20 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Moldova 9% 8%
Armenia 1% 2%
Georgia 2% 4%
Kazakhstan 1% 2%

Will Nicolás Maduro be president of Venezuela on 11 January 2025?

Forecast Count:
 6 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 11, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Oct 17, 2024 02:35AM UTC
(20 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 99% 97%
No 1% 3%

On 31 May 2025, will Nvidia be the world’s most valuable company by market cap?

Forecast Count:
 3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 May 03, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(6 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Oct 17, 2024 02:35AM UTC
(20 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 5% 27%
No 95% 73%

Will Russia invade Estonia, Latvia, and/or Lithuania before 1 April 2027?

Forecast Count:
 7 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Oct 17, 2024 02:35AM UTC
(20 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Estonia 1% 2%
Latvia 1% 1%
Lithuania 2% 1%

In the next six months, will the Global Protest Tracker record an anti-government protest in Iran with 10,000 or more participants lasting at least a week?

Forecast Count:
 12 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Oct 19, 2024 04:40AM UTC
(18 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Forecast Window Forecast Expiration Current Consensus
Yes 3% Oct 19, 2024 to Apr 19, 2025 Nov 19, 2024 6%
No 97% Oct 19, 2024 to Apr 19, 2025 Nov 19, 2024 94%

Will any listed Muslim-majority country sign an agreement establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
 12 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Oct 22, 2024 01:55AM UTC
(15 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Forecast Window Forecast Expiration Current Consensus
Yes 1% Oct 22, 2024 to Apr 22, 2025 Nov 22, 2024 0%
No 99% Oct 22, 2024 to Apr 22, 2025 Nov 22, 2024 100%
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