Confirmed previous forecast
-0.000031
Relative Brier Score
10
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 10 | 10 | 10 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 6 | 6 | 6 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Definitions | |||||
Most Active Topics:
Iran-VNSAs,
Mission: Diplomacy,
Semiconductor Supply Chain
New Prediction
Will at least five more exoplanets be found to be potentially habitable between 1 February 2024 and 31 December 2024?
Compare to me
peteb
quit this question on Jul 31, 2024 02:00AM
Probability
Answer
85%
(0%)
Yes
15%
(0%)
No
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Jun 30, 2024 03:20AM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
2%
(0%)
Yes
May 30, 2024 to Nov 30, 2024
98%
(0%)
No
May 30, 2024 to Nov 30, 2024
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
10%
(0%)
Yes
90%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Why do you think you're right?
assuming we discover say 150 exoplanets a year, (with the rate increasing each year and that our ability to discover planets in the habitable zone also increasing and one in 3 planets discovered typically in the habitable zone finding an additional 5 more planets in this time period seems highly likely
Files
Why might you be wrong?
We may cease searching for economic reasons. The rate of discovery may drop off as we have discovered the "low hanging fruit".
Files
with the rate increasing each year
Please notice that, according to the data, this is not the case: https://www.infer-pub.com/comments/120728 (and the full detailed data here: https://www.infer-pub.com/comments/120891 )
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Mar 20, 2024 07:42PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
2%
Yes
Feb 20, 2024 to Aug 20, 2024
98%
No
Feb 20, 2024 to Aug 20, 2024
Saudi will pause this until the end situation in Gaza becomes clear
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Mar 19, 2024 09:18AM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
6%
Yes
Feb 19, 2024 to Mar 19, 2024
94%
No
Feb 19, 2024 to Mar 19, 2024
The push to extend ground operations will finally push hezbullah to provide support to hamas
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
Yes
98%
No
The situation in Gaza will not improve sufficiently to allow the Houthi’s to back down. Efforts to restrict Houthi capabilities will fail
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
3%
Yes
Why do you think you're right?
Less than 3 months to forecast date, he seems to have excellent health care he is in control of electoral process, war in Ukraine swinging his way. A coup seems unlikely after seeing off Wagner.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
He suffers a fatal health event e.g. heart attack or stroke
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Mar 17, 2024 11:36PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0%
Yes
Feb 17, 2024 to Aug 17, 2024
Why do you think you're right?
China needs to focus on the internal economy rather than external adventures. It would be too uncertain an outcome to attack Taiwan at themoment
Files
Why might you be wrong?
A blockade might be possible as a response to a provocation. Chinese leadership may desire an external distraction to internal problems
Files