Yeah, Taiwan is strategically important, but not enough to start a world war.
1.657248
Relative Brier Score
5
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
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No forecasts in the past 3 months
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Most Active Topics:
Mission: Diplomacy,
Semiconductor Supply Chain
New Prediction
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Mar 18, 2024 05:40AM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0%
Yes
Feb 18, 2024 to Aug 18, 2024
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
6%
(0%)
Yes
Vladimir Putin has enormous political influence over the Russian elite and has demonstrated a large flexibility in his handling of foreign state relationships. However, the incident with Prigohozin demonstrates that he has developed large blind spots and has overextended the Russian military that he has direct control over.
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New Prediction
Probability
Answer
4%
Yes
96%
No
Why do you think you're right?
China is and will continue to be hampered by export restrictions from the US, however the ability for China to adapt their chip manufacturing sector and accelerated their manufacturing technologies will continue to give them an edge in the industry. Couple that with strong state and corporate initiatives in AI and ML, and there are good reasons why Microsoft will continue to want a presence in the country.
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Why might you be wrong?
The trade war between the US and China might continue to escalate to a point where it would be infeasible for Microsoft to maintain a presence in China.
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New Badge
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
6%
Yes
Vladimir Putin has enormous political influence over the Russian elite and has demonstrated a large flexibility in his handling of foreign state relationships. However, the incident with Prigohozin demonstrates that he has developed large blind spots and has overextended the Russian military that he has direct control over.
Files
The US has demonstrated this capability before and can likely execute another attack quickly if they wanted to. The question is whether the risk of escalation is enough if a deterrent for both sides.