Confirmed previous forecast
0.117683
Relative Brier Score
25
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 25 | 25 | 25 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 11 | 11 | 11 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Definitions | |||||
Most Active Topics:
Semiconductor Supply Chain,
Iran-VNSAs,
Decoding Disinformation,
Mission: Diplomacy
New Prediction
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Jun 16, 2024 07:19AM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
25%
(0%)
Yes
May 16, 2024 to May 16, 2025
75%
(0%)
No
May 16, 2024 to May 16, 2025
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Jun 16, 2024 07:19AM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
4%
(0%)
Yes
May 16, 2024 to Nov 16, 2024
96%
(0%)
No
May 16, 2024 to Nov 16, 2024
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
9%
(0%)
Yes
91%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
3%
(0%)
Yes
97%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
2023 Q2
0%
(0%)
2023 Q3
0%
(0%)
2023 Q4
0%
(0%)
2024 Q1
0%
(0%)
2024 Q2
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
70%
(+50%)
Yes
30%
(-50%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
News update appear on wsj due to biden sanction
Files
Why might you be wrong?
it's currently a proposal not mandatory
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
60%
Yes
40%
No
Based on recent event (attack on 13th april), israel will retaliate somehow cyber is one way that is less impactful than missile or might be a combination
Files
sanction over the iran attack will be indirect so probably cyberattack migh be in the hands of israel army