My forecast leans towards "No" (70%) because of the historical challenges faced in developing safe and effective blood substitutes, including previous failures in clinical trials. While recent advancements and funding for shelf-stable whole blood substitutes show promise, the complexity of the FDA approval process and the stringent requirements for full approval for routine human use make successful outcomes within the specified timeframe unlikely.
-0.03437
Relative Brier Score
Questions Forecasted
Scored Questions
26
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 340 | 26 | 917 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 13 | 6 | 293 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 61 | 25 | 154 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 26 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Badge
Power Forecaster - Jan 2025
Earned for making 20+ forecasts in a month.
New Badge
Star Commenter - Jan 2025
Earned for making 5+ comments in a month (rationales not included).
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
30%
Yes
70%
No
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
A change in the success rates.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
26%
Yes
74%
No
Why do you think you're right?
My forecast leans towards "No" (60%) because of the low success rate of drug repurposing and the lack of any candidates successfully completing phase 3 trials for traumatic brain injuries. Even though there is potential for repurposing neurodegenerative drugs because of shared pathological mechanisms, significant regulatory hurdles and the stringent requirements for FDA approval may hinder successful outcomes.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
If there's a change in the success rate.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
30%
Implantable Devices
20%
Environmental Sensors
40%
Personal Electronics
10%
Advanced Computing
Why do you think you're right?
Based on the current trends and potential for market demand, Personal Electronics may have the highest likelihood of commercial adoption due to the consumer-oriented nature of the products, the growing trend in health monitoring, and the increasing acceptance of wearable technology. However, Implantable Devices could also be strong contenders, given the critical needs in healthcare
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Any changes in the field would change my forecast.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
20%
Yes
80%
No
Why do you think you're right?
Considering the background information, it becomes evident that the FDA may require a significant amount of time to fully integrate in silico methods into its regulatory framework. This hesitation can largely be attributed to the traditional reluctance to change that often characterizes administrative bodies. Such organizations typically prioritize established practices and may be cautious about adopting new technologies, especially when it comes to ensuring safety and efficacy in public health. The transition to these innovative methodologies might be gradual, reflecting a careful approach to making sure that all potential risks and benefits are thoroughly evaluated.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
If things change overtime, which I doubt because of the conventional ways scientists think.
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Feb 28, 2025 06:15PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
9%
(0%)
Yes
Jan 31, 2025 to Jul 31, 2025
91%
(0%)
No
Jan 31, 2025 to Jul 31, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
(0%)
Yes
95%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
3%
(0%)
Less than or equal to 59
7%
(0%)
Between 60 and 69, inclusive
26%
(0%)
Between 70 and 79, inclusive
27%
(0%)
Between 80 and 89, inclusive
37%
(0%)
More than or equal to 90
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
Why do you think you're right?
My forecast still strongly stays "No" (95%) because Egypt has been resilient in managing its economic challenges through various reforms and support from international organizations. Inspire of some ongoing issues such as inflation and currency fluctuations, these are not indicative of an imminent economic collapse within the next 12 months, especially given the government's proactive measures and external financial assistance.
Why might you be wrong?