Confirmed previous forecast
0.162233
Relative Brier Score
587
Forecasts
26
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 5 | 21 | 379 | 372 | 587 |
| Comments | 0 | 5 | 245 | 242 | 249 |
| Questions Forecasted | 5 | 20 | 60 | 57 | 75 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 14 | 13 | 26 |
| Definitions | |||||
Most Active Topics:
Geopolitical Security,
Russia-Ukraine War,
Emerging Technology,
Iran: Threats & Influence,
Quickfire Forecasts
Most Active Topics:
Iran Nuclear Program,
Iran-VNSAs,
Russia-Europe,
Economic Debt,
East Asia Security
New Prediction
Will Russia invade Estonia, Latvia, and/or Lithuania before 1 April 2027?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Estonia
0%
(0%)
Latvia
0%
(0%)
Lithuania
Files
Fellow forecaster @sai_39 , after reading your rationale I noticed that you placed zero chances for the outcome. I learned from other forecasters that it's risky to bet on that since there is more less 100 days until resolution. If the event happened the score you get is going to affect your performance, placing 1 percent yes protects you from loosing lots of points.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0%
(0%)
Yes
Dec 13, 2025 to Jun 13, 2026
100%
(0%)
No
Dec 13, 2025 to Jun 13, 2026
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0%
(0%)
Yes
Dec 13, 2025 to Jun 13, 2026
100%
(0%)
No
Dec 13, 2025 to Jun 13, 2026
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
(0%)
Yes
95%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Moldova
0%
(0%)
Armenia
0%
(0%)
Georgia
0%
(0%)
Kazakhstan
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
6%
(-2%)
Yes
94%
(+2%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
24 days left.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
N/A.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes
100%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes
100%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes
100%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes, 3GPP will adopt and integrate O-RAN Alliance specifications
100%
(0%)
No, the O-RAN Alliance will continue to develop specifications independently of 3GPP
0%
(0%)
No, the O-RAN Alliance will stop developing specifications without being integrated into 3GPP
Confirmed previous forecast
Files