DKC

Affirming at less than .05. Always interesting to see the bullies ready for peace when they are losing.

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cj04955442ro

FTA: The junta extended an olive branch Thursday as it struggled to fight on multiple fronts and stem a widespread rebellion.

Some reports say the junta now has control of less than half of Myanmar's territories.

In June, an alliance of three ethnic armies renewed an offensive against the military, seizing territory along a key highway to China's Yunnan province, which borders Myanmar.

The fighting near the border in Shan state has blocked China's ambitious plan to connect its landlocked south-west to the Indian Ocean via Myanmar.

Beijing's top diplomat, Wang Yi, is thought to have delivered a warning to the country's ruler Min Aung Hlaing during a visit to Myanmar last month.

Armed groups should follow "the path of party politics and elections in order to bring about lasting peace and development", the junta said in its statement on Thursday.

"The country's human resources, basic infrastructure and many people's lives have been lost, and the country's stability and development have been blocked [because of the conflict]" it said.

But the rebel groups are sceptical of the offer.

The Karen National Union (KNU), which has been fighting for decades with the military for more autonomy along the border with Thailand, told AFP news agency that talks were only possible if the military agreed to "common political objectives".

"Number one: no military participation in future politics. Two [the military] has to agree to a federal democratic constitution," KNU spokesman Padoh Saw Taw Nee told AFP.

"Number three: they have to be accountable for everything they have committed... including war crimes and crimes against humanity," he said. "No impunity."

If the junta does not accede to these demands, the KNU will "keep putting pressure on [the junta] politically and militarily," he added.

Maung Saungkha, the leader of the Bamar People's Liberation Army, told Reuters news agency that his group is "not interested in this offer".

"They are hanging goat’s heads but selling dog meat," Soe Thu Ya Zaw, commander of the Mandalay People’s Defense Forces, wrote on Facebook.

After the military ousted Myanmar's democratically-elected government in 2021, peaceful protests were met with killings and arrests.

This led ethnic armed groups to join forces with anti-coup militias across the country to fight back, plunging the country into a civil war.

Perhaps motivation for Madura not to attack? It's one thing to be on the outs with the US, but when BRICs snubs you...

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-09-26/maduro-s-brics-invite-slips-away-as-bloc-plans-another-expansion?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email

FTA:

Maduro has chased a BRICS invite as the group plans another expansion after adding four members to its core roster of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa in January, in hopes of using it to bolster Venezuela’s legitimacy globally.

Russia, which will host the bloc’s annual summit next month, presented a preliminary list of names to its fellow members during the UN General Assembly in New York as it seeks consensus around which countries to invite, according to the officials, who requested anonymity to discuss sensitive matters.

A Russian official close to the Kremlin declined to comment specifically on Venezuela but said Vladimir Putin’s government cannot formally invite any nation to the group before there is agreement among all current members. Neither Russia’s foreign ministry nor a spokesperson for Putin responded to comment requests.

Affirming. There is a reason they don't allow inspectors  to inspect.

https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/return-barred-inspectors-iran-unlikely-iaea-chief-says-ship-has-sailed-2024-09-25/

Affirming at less than .05. No one wants to antagonize Iran after the killing of Nasrallah.

https://www.npr.org/2024/09/29/nx-s1-5132098/hezbollah-nasrallah-world-reaction-israel-us-lebanon

Dropping a bit lower. Xi seems focused on fixing China's domestic economy. And that won't happen overnight. IMHO.

https://www.scmp.com/economy/article/3280018/china-vows-save-private-economy-stabilise-real-estate-market-politburo-meeting

FTA: The meeting also called for the stabilisation of China’s property sector to prevent it from further slumping and to ensure necessary fiscal expenditures.

This came after financial authorities rolled out a raft of stimulus measures on Tuesday, amid rising calls for the authorities to step up efforts to reverse weakening economic momentum.

“The message is strong and intends to rekindle confidence and shore up expectations,” Li Xuenan, a finance professor at the Cheung Kong Graduate School of Business in Beijing, said after the meeting.

“Beijing is anxious to prevent downward risks from becoming self-fulfilling.”

Julian Evans-Pritchard, head of China economics at London-based Capital Economics, said the meeting served to acknowledge that new problems have emerged in China’s economy, while also answering calls for additional policies to address them.

Affirming at less than .05%. I don't believe there is anyone with a spine left in the Kremlin to mount a so-called Palace Coup. And Putin takes great pains with his safety. 

Moving up a couple of points on Armenia based on @VidurKapur and @Rene  recent comments.

Moving down based on base rate analyses of @johnnycaffeine and @ctsats  Thanks!

I'm not reading any whispers of presidential elections. And IMHO, I don't see war as a way to break a log-jam. I believe it contributes more chaos as players see opportunities to grab power.

Affirming at less than .05% for each city.  I don't think Russia is in a position to launch a difficult ground invasion on a large city. With 3 months left on the timeline, Russia has recently lost very large ammo depots. And Ukraine has been making headway in the Kursk region and...

https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-war-vovchansk-zelenskyy-vuhledar-ca17e5fdea72bb6e428d7e067bb93c75

FTA: Ukrainian troops engaged in hand-to-hand combat as they drove Russian forces out of a huge processing plant in the town of Vovchansk in Ukraine’s northeast that had been occupied for four months, officials said Tuesday.

The plant, a partly steel structure with some 30 buildings, had been a Russian stronghold in the Kharkiv border region since May when Russia sought to further stretch Ukraine’s weary forces by launching a fresh push in the area.