DKC

Affirming, I'm waiting to see what January and February bring. I expect the 2025 pattern to continue, but if it doesn't I'll be adjusting higher.

Estonia: Remaining at 1% chance, unlikely but Estonia wouldn't be doing this if they didn't think there was reason:

https://www.defensenews.com/global/europe/2025/12/12/estonia-erects-first-of-600-strong-baltic-bunker-wall-on-russia-border/

FTA: Estonia has begun installing the first concrete bunkers along its southeastern border with Russia as part of the Baltic Defense Line, marking a key milestone for the trilateral fortification project despite delays.​​

Five bunkers were awaiting installation as of this week, with Estonian officials targeting 28 bunkers in the ground by year’s end, according to Krismar Rosin, press officer for the Estonian Centre for Defence Investments. The initial batch represents the first phase of a 600-bunker network designed to strengthen the European Union’s and NATO’s eastern flank.​​

Latvia: no real news that I could find, but they have elections in 2026 which could affect Putin's eagerness to invade them. But remaining at less than .5% chance at this point.

Lithuania: Moving up a point. Unlikely, but again, NATO wouldn't be doing this if they didn't think it was necessary IMHO

https://www.military.com/daily-news/investigations-and-features/2025/12/15/germany-construct-defenses-poland-deploy-more-troops-lithuania-russian-threat-nato-grows.html

FTA: European nations are constructing a defensive wall along NATO's eastern frontier as Western intelligence agencies warn Russia could be militarily capable of attacking the alliance within five years. To assist with the construction of defensive works, German forces are returning to the region on a permanent basis for the first time since World War II.

Moving up a couple of points based on @grainmummy recent analysis. You can see it here

Moving a few more to the latest bin based on Trump's withdrawal of support for Ukraine and Zelensky giving up on joining NATO. I'm still not sure Putin will agree, but just in case.

Dropping a bit more due to passage of time and moving into a news cycle that will be holiday-focused.

I believe Africa Corps will be (and maybe already is) in Togo, but whether the news corp will suss it out in the next 2 weeks is highly unlikely IMHO.

Dropping a couple of points because of the short timeline, and nothing in the recent news. But I wouldn't be at all surprised if this happens in the coming months.

Moving a couple of points lower. I think this is a bit higher bar and in some cases a shorter timeline that other questions on this top, thus I will remain lower.

It is a long timeline and things could change. But with Trump's recent published war doctrine:

https://www.brookings.edu/articles/breaking-down-trumps-2025-national-security-strategy/

And as noted in a post by @LogicCurve , the Trump administration is canceling warship construction. It appears that China doesn't have to worry about the  US.

Additionaly, Russia is unlikely to beconsidered a competitor to China anymore. Russia's warships have been hit hard by Ukraine, and they can't seem to win a war that they've started with a country that has 1/3 to 1/4 of the population.

And if I take this in conjuction with the surge in exports China has had as a result of Trump's tariffs, It would behoove China to play nice and continue the velvet diplomacy that emphasizes trade and aid, over displays of brute military strength.

https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2025/12/8/china-trade-surplus-tops-1tn-for-first-time-amid-pivot-to-counter-us-lull

I think Moldova continues to be a thorn in Putin's side:

https://euromaidanpress.com/2025/12/08/russia-tests-crypto-funded-hybrid-warfare-on-moldova-latest-experiment-costs-it-107-million/

Armenia seems to mostly seemed handled, and Georgia has a puppet government that makes Putin happy IMHO

I'm not higher on Moldova only because I think finally the sanctions are having an impact on Russia:

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2025/dec/07/putin-accept-trump-deal-russia-economy-ukraine-war