DKC

Reducing after our virtual meeting and learning how hard (and slow) it is to develop these types of machines. Also learning that I am supposed to assume Business as usual means China doesn't take over Taiwan. (Which I am not sure I agree with, but will address the question that way).

But I'm not as low as the crowd because of reports that export controls are likely to weaken:

https://thediplomat.com/2024/10/the-fab-4-allies-are-pushing-back-on-us-export-controls-on-china/

And reports that China as early as 2021, has reportedly been stealing trade secrets from ASML

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-02-09/asml-warns-chinese-rival-may-be-infringing-its-trade-secrets

Thanks to @Hinterhunter for those sources

I am a bit higher than the crowd on this one, but still below 50%. My reasons include:

1) China is throwing everything they have at semiconductor production. And as a dictator, Xi has a lot of levers he can work. 

2) The USA strong-armed the Dutch government and ASML from selling high-end lithography machines to China on 2019. Although Trump was in power at that time, the US had not broken ties with most of our allies yet. I anticipate that business as normal in the next few years will not be normal and Trump may alienate many of our allies. The Dutch government, as a result may lift their prohibitions on ASML. They would not want to alienate China any more than they have done. And they may see it ias advantageous to befriend China. IMHO.

And thanks to @Rene for the multiple sources posted to help me get caught up on this topic.

And just found this posted by @hinterhunter: https://thediplomat.com/2024/10/the-fab-4-allies-are-pushing-back-on-us-export-controls-on-china/

So it appears the shift in Dutch policy has perhaps already started.

Moving down a few points on passage of time and no announcements in the news of any kind of ramping up that I have found.

Moving up on all of these by a point. Putin knows Trump won't support any of them if he invades. Ukraine is likely to fall when Trump withdraws all support leaving Putin with available troops to go where he wants.

Unfortunately, I believe Assad is on the rise. And Trump is likely to withdraw US support for SDF

 https://www.ft.com/content/049acb96-b89a-4e0d-91d8-a58ff403ba7b

 Attempts to rehabilitate Assad are picking up steam. Several European countries — including Italy, Hungary and Greece — are keen to abandon the current policy of isolation. They want to return Syrian refugees to the country despite the unwillingness of the regime to pursue genuine reconciliation. They hope that in exchange for financial support and political cover, Assad will agree to allow back large numbers of refugees living not just in Europe but also in Jordan, Lebanon and Turkey.

These expectations are misplaced. For Assad, negotiations over security, refugees and drugs are means to entangle foreign governments in drawn-out processes in which the other side pays and concedes as he talks and cedes nothing. Assad hopes that the incoming Trump administration will withdraw its troops from Syria and lift stringent sanctions without requiring it to engage in a political process.

Starting forecast: I'm on the high end. This is not my area of expertise, but I watched the Intel video and have been dipping into Google on this.

It appears from Google AI that TSMC already has this. If I'm wrong, please let me know:)

With Trump coming into office,  I think Xi will feel emboldened to take what he wants from Taiwan. Trump may impose tariffs on China but he will do that whether or not Xi invades. And Trump has shown no inclination to extend a hand to Taiwan or any other US ally.

If the timeline was a bit longer, I would be higher, but I can see Xi moving in within the next year to claim TSMC and all of its scientists and equipment.

Affirming for now. I believe the election of Trump may increase the worry in NATO allies. And any peace agreement between Ukraine and Russia will be to Russia's advantage because both sides know Trump doesn't support Ukraine. Hence an unleashed-Putin is a larger threat IMHO.

https://www.cnn.com/2024/11/13/politics/elise-stefanik-ukraine-nato/index.html

Affirming at less than .05%. He takes care of his health and gets the best health care available. He rules with an iron fist, so any rebels in the ranks have been expunged. His popularity is to be envied by any US leader.

Confirming. I think Putin will wait until Dems are out of office before he invades.

Affirming.

Houthis still playing war.

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/11/13/houthis-launch-missile-drone-attacks-on-us-warships-off-yemens-coast