| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 5 | 22 | 310 | 295 | 2525 |
| Comments | 6 | 27 | 358 | 339 | 1872 |
| Questions Forecasted | 4 | 9 | 27 | 23 | 111 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 3 | 11 | 153 | 145 | 1839 |
| Definitions | |||||
Dropping a bit more due to passage of time and moving into a news cycle that will be holiday-focused.
I believe Africa Corps will be (and maybe already is) in Togo, but whether the news corp will suss it out in the next 2 weeks is highly unlikely IMHO.
Maybe this will flush out the Africa Corps that may be in the background:
Dropping a couple of points because of the short timeline, and nothing in the recent news. But I wouldn't be at all surprised if this happens in the coming months.
They may already be there and the press will find out and announce in the coming 3 weeks.
Moving a couple of points lower. I think this is a bit higher bar and in some cases a shorter timeline that other questions on this top, thus I will remain lower.
Some earlier than expected advancement in this area, or something brought in from space. But I expect both of these are very unlikely.
Affirming, I'm waiting to see what January and February bring. I expect the 2025 pattern to continue, but if it doesn't I'll be adjusting higher.
Next year may bring new unexpected opportunities and challenges.
After the click-bait of mirror life headlines could increase, In which case I am too low and perhaps should move higher.
It is a long timeline and things could change. But with Trump's recent published war doctrine:
https://www.brookings.edu/articles/breaking-down-trumps-2025-national-security-strategy/
And as noted in a post by @LogicCurve , the Trump administration is canceling warship construction. It appears that China doesn't have to worry about the US.
Additionaly, Russia is unlikely to beconsidered a competitor to China anymore. Russia's warships have been hit hard by Ukraine, and they can't seem to win a war that they've started with a country that has 1/3 to 1/4 of the population.
And if I take this in conjuction with the surge in exports China has had as a result of Trump's tariffs, It would behoove China to play nice and continue the velvet diplomacy that emphasizes trade and aid, over displays of brute military strength.
A long timeline, and a lot could happen to change US positions in a year.
And Xi may want to take advantage of a weak US to broaden China's reach.
I think Moldova continues to be a thorn in Putin's side:
https://euromaidanpress.com/2025/12/08/russia-tests-crypto-funded-hybrid-warfare-on-moldova-latest-experiment-costs-it-107-million/
Armenia seems to mostly seemed handled, and Georgia has a puppet government that makes Putin happy IMHO
I'm not higher on Moldova only because I think finally the sanctions are having an impact on Russia:
Putin has dug himself out of other jams, And perhaps his war economy needs there to be a war to support itself, so if peace comes with Ukraine reduced sanctions he might need or at least have a reason to go after Moldova.
The sanctions may finally be doing what they were designed to do. And Putin will need more than a year for the economy to recover.
https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-economy-oil-exports-war-funding-collapse-sanctions-ukraine-war-2025-12
FTA:
The revenue collapse stems from a combination of a stronger ruble and sagging Brent prices, widening discounts on Russian crude as buyers demand steeper price cuts to offset the risk of sanctions.
The divergence between stable exports and collapsing revenue has major implications for Moscow's ability to finance its war in Ukraine.
Oil and gas revenues have historically accounted for more than a third of Russia's federal budget, and energy remains one of the country's most significant sources of funding.
But even as Russia boosts weapons production and ramps up defense spending, the money flowing in to support that buildup is shrinking.
Professionals have forecast economic disaster for years, but Putin's economic advisors have pulled Russia back from the brink before. Perhaps with cypto this time.
Why do you think you're right?
Moving a few more to the latest bin based on Trump's withdrawal of support for Ukraine and Zelensky giving up on joining NATO. I'm still not sure Putin will agree, but just in case.
Why might you be wrong?
Putin may be in a worse position than I think.