Moving up a couple of points based on @grainmummy recent analysis. You can see it here
0.6618
Relative Brier Score
803
Forecasts
592
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 5 | 24 | 310 | 297 | 2527 |
| Comments | 7 | 30 | 359 | 342 | 1875 |
| Questions Forecasted | 5 | 9 | 27 | 23 | 111 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 5 | 13 | 155 | 147 | 1841 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
70%
(+2%)
Yes
30%
(-2%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
A worldwide pandemic, or other more immediate health crisis could drive it off the scientific radar.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
69%
(-2%)
Less than 30 days
0%
(-2%)
30 days
7%
(-2%)
31-60 days
7%
(-2%)
61-90 days
17%
(+8%)
91 days or more
Why do you think you're right?
Moving a few more to the latest bin based on Trump's withdrawal of support for Ukraine and Zelensky giving up on joining NATO. I'm still not sure Putin will agree, but just in case.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Putin may be in a worse position than I think.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(-2%)
Togo
Why do you think you're right?
Dropping a bit more due to passage of time and moving into a news cycle that will be holiday-focused.
I believe Africa Corps will be (and maybe already is) in Togo, but whether the news corp will suss it out in the next 2 weeks is highly unlikely IMHO.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Maybe this will flush out the Africa Corps that may be in the background:
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
3%
(-2%)
Togo
Why do you think you're right?
Dropping a couple of points because of the short timeline, and nothing in the recent news. But I wouldn't be at all surprised if this happens in the coming months.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
They may already be there and the press will find out and announce in the coming 3 weeks.
Files
Yeah, it looks pretty clear that they'll go there pretty soon. Just probably not by the end of the year.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
35%
(-5%)
Yes
65%
(+5%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Moving a couple of points lower. I think this is a bit higher bar and in some cases a shorter timeline that other questions on this top, thus I will remain lower.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Some earlier than expected advancement in this area, or something brought in from space. But I expect both of these are very unlikely.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
36%
(0%)
Less than $350 million
38%
(0%)
More than or equal to $350 million but less than $500 million
18%
(0%)
More than or equal to $500 million but less than $650 million
5%
(0%)
More than or equal to $650 million but less than $800 million
3%
(0%)
More than or equal to $800 million
Why do you think you're right?
Affirming, I'm waiting to see what January and February bring. I expect the 2025 pattern to continue, but if it doesn't I'll be adjusting higher.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Next year may bring new unexpected opportunities and challenges.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
65%
(0%)
Yes
35%
(0%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Affirming. Not seeing anything in the news to suggest a change.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
After the click-bait of mirror life headlines could increase, In which case I am too low and perhaps should move higher.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
3%
(-1%)
Yes
97%
(+1%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
It is a long timeline and things could change. But with Trump's recent published war doctrine:
https://www.brookings.edu/articles/breaking-down-trumps-2025-national-security-strategy/
And as noted in a post by @LogicCurve , the Trump administration is canceling warship construction. It appears that China doesn't have to worry about the US.
Additionaly, Russia is unlikely to beconsidered a competitor to China anymore. Russia's warships have been hit hard by Ukraine, and they can't seem to win a war that they've started with a country that has 1/3 to 1/4 of the population.
And if I take this in conjuction with the surge in exports China has had as a result of Trump's tariffs, It would behoove China to play nice and continue the velvet diplomacy that emphasizes trade and aid, over displays of brute military strength.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
A long timeline, and a lot could happen to change US positions in a year.
And Xi may want to take advantage of a weak US to broaden China's reach.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
(0%)
Moldova
1%
(0%)
Armenia
0%
(0%)
Georgia
0%
(0%)
Kazakhstan
Why do you think you're right?
I think Moldova continues to be a thorn in Putin's side:
https://euromaidanpress.com/2025/12/08/russia-tests-crypto-funded-hybrid-warfare-on-moldova-latest-experiment-costs-it-107-million/
Armenia seems to mostly seemed handled, and Georgia has a puppet government that makes Putin happy IMHO
I'm not higher on Moldova only because I think finally the sanctions are having an impact on Russia:
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Putin has dug himself out of other jams, And perhaps his war economy needs there to be a war to support itself, so if peace comes with Ukraine reduced sanctions he might need or at least have a reason to go after Moldova.
Files
Why do you think you're right?
Estonia: Remaining at 1% chance, unlikely but Estonia wouldn't be doing this if they didn't think there was reason:
https://www.defensenews.com/global/europe/2025/12/12/estonia-erects-first-of-600-strong-baltic-bunker-wall-on-russia-border/
FTA: Estonia has begun installing the first concrete bunkers along its southeastern border with Russia as part of the Baltic Defense Line, marking a key milestone for the trilateral fortification project despite delays.
Five bunkers were awaiting installation as of this week, with Estonian officials targeting 28 bunkers in the ground by year’s end, according to Krismar Rosin, press officer for the Estonian Centre for Defence Investments. The initial batch represents the first phase of a 600-bunker network designed to strengthen the European Union’s and NATO’s eastern flank.
Latvia: no real news that I could find, but they have elections in 2026 which could affect Putin's eagerness to invade them. But remaining at less than .5% chance at this point.
Lithuania: Moving up a point. Unlikely, but again, NATO wouldn't be doing this if they didn't think it was necessary IMHO
https://www.military.com/daily-news/investigations-and-features/2025/12/15/germany-construct-defenses-poland-deploy-more-troops-lithuania-russian-threat-nato-grows.html
FTA: European nations are constructing a defensive wall along NATO's eastern frontier as Western intelligence agencies warn Russia could be militarily capable of attacking the alliance within five years. To assist with the construction of defensive works, German forces are returning to the region on a permanent basis for the first time since World War II.
Why might you be wrong?
A lot depends on when the war in Ukraine ends. At the moment it seems unlikely to happen in the coming months. But often wars can intensify and look worse while a peace deal is being discussed.